5676.0 - Business Indicators, Australia, Sep 2012  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/12/2012   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

Graph: Trend Revisions


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1)
falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2)
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%

2011
December
150 437
0.8
150 437
0.8
150 437
0.8
2012
March
151 759
0.9
151 718
0.9
151 900
1.0
June
153 078
0.9
153 080
0.9
153 019
0.7
September
154 181
0.7
154 342
0.8
153 465
0.3



Company gross operating profits (Current prices)

Graph: Trend Revisions


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
rises by 4.4% on this quarter (1)
falls by 4.4% on this quarter (2)
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%

2011
December
67 186
-2.1
67 186
-2.1
67 186
-2.1
2012
March
64 795
-3.6
64 563
-3.9
64 883
-3.4
June
62 982
-2.8
63 088
-2.3
62 977
-2.9
September
61 917
-1.7
62 980
-0.2
61 445
-2.4