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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.1% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.1% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2008 December 138 522 -0.4 138 522 -0.4 138 522 -0.4 2009 March 137 009 -1.1 136 860 -1.2 137 034 -1.1 June 135 401 -1.2 135 471 -1.0 135 413 -1.2 September 134 090 -1.0 135 074 -0.3 134 237 -0.9

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 4.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 4.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2008 December 62 172 -4.0 62 172 -4.0 62 172 -4.0 2009 March 58 357 -6.1 58 022 -6.7 58 359 -6.1 June 55 031 -5.7 55 170 -4.9 55 053 -5.7 September 52 500 -4.6 54 173 -1.8 52 552 -4.5