5676.0 - Business Indicators, Australia, Sep 2003  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/12/2003   
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EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the "what-if" chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.


INVENTORIES (CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES)

TREND AS PUBLISHED
WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER’S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE


Graph - Inventories (chain volume measures)
( 1) rises by 1.1% on this quarter
(2) falls by 1.1% on this quarter
$m
% change
$m
% change
$m
% change
2002
December
92 673
0.0
92 673
0.0
92 673
0.0
2003
March
93 658
1.1
93 564
1.0
93 690
1.1
June
September
95 292
97 128
1.7
1.9
95 308
97 146
1.9
1.9
95 264
96 539
1.7
1.3

COMPANY GROSS OPERATING PROFITS (CURRENT PRICES)

TREND AS PUBLISHED
WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER’S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE


Graph - Company gross operating profits (current prices)
(1) rises by 4.0% on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.0% on this quarter
$m
% change
$m
% change
$m
% change
2002
December
22 491
1.3
22 492
1.3
22 492
1.3
2003
March
22 284
-0.9
22 219
-1.2
22 326
-0.7
June
September
22 026
21 968
-1.2
-0.3
22 061
22 453
-0.7
1.8
22 022
21 939
-1.4
-0.4