EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
TREND REVISIONS
The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the "what-if" chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.
(1) The June quarter seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories (chain volume measures), and the June quarter seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits (current prices), are higher than the March quarter estimate by the percentage shown.
(2) The June quarter seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories (chain volume measures), and the June quarter seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits (current prices), are lower than the March quarter estimate by the percentage shown.
The percentages shown are the historical average of the movements, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series.
INVENTORIES (CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES) |
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 | | TREND AS PUBLISHED | WHAT IF JUNE QUARTER’S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE... |
| |
|
|
 | | | | ( 1) rises by 1.1% on Mar 2001 | (2) falls by 1.1% on Mar 2001 |
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| $m | % change | $m | % change | $m | % change |
| 2001 | | | | | | |
| June | 89 141 | 0.1 | 89 141 | 0.1 | 89 141 | 0.1 |
| September | 89 188 | 0.1 | 89 125 | - | 89 241 | 0.1 |
| December | 89 331 | 0.2 | 89 353 | 0.3 | 89 313 | 0.1 |
| | | | | | |
2002
March | 89 541 | 0.2
| 89 831 | 0.5
| 89 273 | - |
|
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
COMPANY GROSS OPERATING PROFITS (CURRENT PRICES) |
|
| | TREND AS PUBLISHED | WHAT IF MARCH QUARTER’S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE... |
| |
|
|
 | | | | (1) rises by 4.0% on Mar 2001 | (2) falls by 4.0% on Mar 2001 |
| | |
| $m | % change | $m | % change | $m | % change |
| 2001 | | | | | | |
| June | 18 304 | -1.5 | 18 304 | -1.5 | 18 304 | -1.5 |
| September | 18 466 | 0.9 | 18 402 | 0.5 | 18 495 | 1.0 |
| December | 18 941 | 2.6 | 18 960 | 3.0 | 18 298 | 2.3 |
2002
March | 19 605 | 3.5 | 19 779 | 4.3 | 19 333 | 2.1 |
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