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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 1.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 1.1% on this quarter $m % change $m % change $m % change 2008 September 122 187 0.3 122 189 0.3 122 189 0.3 December 120 913 -1.0 120 925 -1.0 121 074 -0.9 2009 March 118 658 -1.9 118 693 -1.8 118 643 -2.0 June 115 954 -2.3 116 698 -1.7 115 983 -2.2

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.0% on this quarter $m % change $m % change $m % change 2008 September 59 848 1.8 59 848 1.8 59 848 1.8 December 57 715 -3.6 57 682 -3.6 57 974 -3.1 2009 March 54 028 -6.4 54 092 -6.2 53 991 -6.9 June 49 976 -7.5 51 542 -4.7 50 138 -7.1