5676.0 - Business Indicators, Australia, Jun 2003  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/09/2003   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the "what-if" chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.


INVENTORIES (CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES)
Graph: What if trend revisions: Inventories (chain volume measures)
TREND AS PUBLISHED
WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE
(1) rises by 1.1% on this quarter
(2) falls by 1.1% on this quarter
$m
%change
$m
%change
$m
%change
2002
September
92,898
-0.3
92,899
-0.3
92,899
-0.3
December
92,980
0.1
92,884
0.0
93,006
0.1
2003
March
93,474
0.5
93,503
0.7
93,461
0.5
June
94,213
0.8
94,511
1.1
93,923
0.5

COMPANY GROSS OPERATING PROFITS (CURRENT PRICES)
TREND AS PUBLISHED
WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
(1) rises by 4.0% on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.0% on this quarter
$m
%change
$m
%change
$m
%change
2002
September
22,182
2.8
22,181
2.8
22,181
2.8
December
22,506
1.5
22,526
1.6
22,625
2
2003
March
22,320
-0.8
22,317
-0.9
22,281
-1.5
June
21,766
-2.5
21,891
-1.9
21,413
-3.9