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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2015 March 154 226 -0.1 154 226 -0.1 154 226 -0.1 June 154 293 0.0 154 207 0.0 154 381 0.1 September 154 408 0.1 154 428 0.1 154 369 0.0 December 154 304 -0.1 154 633 0.1 153 798 -0.4

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 4.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 4.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2015 March 64 214 0.3 64 214 0.3 64 214 0.3 June 64 193 0.0 64 062 -0.2 64 387 0.3 September 63 936 -0.4 63 985 -0.1 63 872 -0.8 December 63 534 -0.6 64 232 0.4 62 668 -1.9