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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2013 March 157 302 0.1 157 302 0.1 157 302 0.1 June 156 999 -0.2 156 918 -0.2 157 103 -0.1 September 156 623 -0.2 156 655 -0.2 156 593 -0.3 December 156 180 -0.3 156 632 0.0 155 746 -0.5

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 4.4% on this quarter (1) falls by 4.4% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2013 March 63 232 1.6 63 232 1.6 63 232 1.6 June 65 005 2.8 64 893 2.6 65 245 3.2 September 66 654 2.5 66 686 2.8 66 563 2.0 December 68 138 2.2 68 669 3.0 66 973 0.6