5676.0 - Business Indicators, Australia, Jun 2003
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/09/2003
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TECHNICAL NOTE DATA QUALITY
7 The following table shows the standard errors for national quarterly level estimates based upon the data in the current quarter.
na not available (a) See paragraph 17 of the Explanatory Notes for a definition of the Other selected industries. MOVEMENT ESTIMATES 8 The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate. Let us say that one quarter the published level estimate for inventories is $90,000m, and the next quarter the published level estimate is $92,000m. In this example the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $850m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of +$2,000m. For instance, the standard error of $850m indicates that:
9 The following table shows the standard errors for national quarterly movement estimates based upon the data in the current quarter.
na not available (a) See paragraph 17 of the Explanatory Notes for a definition of the Other selected industries. ADJUSTMENTS TO ESTIMATES 10 Adjustments are included in the estimates to allow for lags in processing new businesses to the ABS Business Register. The following table shows the adjustments made to the current quarter's original estimates in current price terms:
INCOME FROM SALES OF GOODS AND SERVICES TIME SERIES 11 As previously discussed, the estimates presented in this publication are partial indicators used in the compilation of the quarterly national accounts. The movements in the Business Indicators estimates will not always be the same as the movements in the comparable national accounts series but they should be reasonably consistent after taking account of differences in concepts, scope and methodology described in paragraph 34 of the Explanatory Notes. If after taking account of these differences, there are concerns about data quality and coherence, the national accounts area provides feedback to the survey area. This process may result in adjustments being applied to the Business Indicators estimates prior to release in this publication. The objective use of the national accounts framework to provide data coherence across all ABS economic statistics ensures that a common understanding of recent economic developments is presented. 12 With the introduction of the Quarterly Business indicators Survey from the March quarter 2001, the ABS commenced the collection of income from sales of goods and services from Mining (ANZSIC Division B); Electricity, gas and water supply (Division D); Construction (Division E); Food retailing (Subdivision 51); Personal and household good retailing (Subdivision 52); Services to finance and insurance (Subdivision 75); Libraries, Museums, and Parks and gardens (Groups 921–923); Video hire outlets (Class 9511); and Hairdressing and beauty salons (Class 9526). 13 The different time periods for which series are available can pose some inconsistencies between the series published in original terms and those released in seasonally adjusted and trend terms, as a minimum of three years worth of data are required in order to produce seasonally adjusted and trend estimates. To reduce these inconsistencies, the ABS has modelled estimates based on data from the monthly Retail Business survey to produce a time series for Food retailing, Personal and household good retailing, Video hire outlets and Hairdressing and beauty salons. There are some significant differences between the monthly Retail trade series and the quarterly income from sales of goods and services and series, and these are discussed in paragraph 35 in the Explanatory Notes. To address these differences in the modelling of the time series, movements from the aggregated monthly series have been applied to the level quarterly estimates for the March quarter 2001, and a time series has been created by backcasting. This has facilitated the production of seasonally adjusted and trend estimates for theseindustries. 14 The ABS does not have alternative data sources to model quarterly time series for income from sales of goods and services for Mining; Electricity, gas and water supply; Construction; and Services to finance and insurance; and data for these industries are only published in original terms for periods since March quarter 2001. The ABS also does not have an alternative data source to model time series for Libraries, Museums, and Parks and gardens. However as the scope for estimates in this publication exclude public sector business units, estimates for Libraries, Museums, and Parks and gardens are relatively small and have been incorporated in estimates for Cultural and recreational services from the March quarter 2001. While this has caused a small break in series in the March quarter 2001, it does not impact on quarterly movements (except for the March quarter 2001), although it will impact on comparisons of year to year movements. This has facilitated the production of seasonally adjusted and trend estimates for Cultural and recreational services. 15 This publication includes estimates of income from sales of goods and services, by industry, and by state/territory, but estimates of national total income from sales of goods and services are not published. Total income from sales of goods and services is not an adequate indicator of the performance of the Australian economy as it includes duplication; for example, goods sold by retailers may also be included in goods sold by wholesalers in the same period. However this publication does include total income from sales of goods and services, by state/territory, as it is considered that there may be interest in this item as a measure of relative activity. This data should be used with caution given the potential for the data to include duplication across industries. 16 Seasonally adjusted and trend data by state/territory are not provided in thispublication but are available on request for a limited set of industries excluding Mining; Construction; Electricity, gas and water; and Services to finance and insurance. State/territory estimates which are most impacted by the limited scope are Western Australia and Northern Territory where income from sales of goods and services for Mining and Construction are relatively significant. PROFITS TIME SERIES 17 With the introduction of the Quarterly Business indicators Survey from the March quarter 2001, the ABS commenced the collection of profits items from Libraries, Museums, and Parks and gardens (Groups 921–923). The ABS does not have an alternative data source to model quarterly time series for Libraries, Museums, and Parks and gardens. However as the scope for estimates in this publication exclude public sector business units, estimates for Libraries, Museums, and Parks and gardens are relatively small and have been incorporated in Company profits before income tax, and Company gross operating profits estimates for Cultural and recreational services from the March quarter 2001. While this has caused a small break in series in the March quarter 2001, it does not impact on quarterly movements (except for the March quarter 2001), although it will impact on comparisons of year to year movements. This has facilitated the production of seasonally adjusted and trend estimates for Cultural and recreational services. 18 Estimates for Company gross operating profits were formerly included in Company Profits, Australia as the experimental series "Company profits before income tax, net interest, depreciation and selected items". Data were published in respect of businesses employing more than 30 persons. Estimates for Company gross operating profits are compiled by deducting estimates for depreciation, net interest paid and some additional items from the Company profits before income tax series. The additional items include activities that do not involve the production of goods and services such as net foreign exchange gains/losses, unrealised gains/losses on the revaluation of assets and some other items often defined in accounting terms as abnormal items that are considered out of scope of the national accounts item Gross operating surplus. 19 While Company profits before income tax estimates for businesses employing 20 or more persons are available from September quarter 1994, data for 'abnormal' items for these businesses only became available with changes in data collection and processing introduced from the June quarter 1999. Therefore the Company gross operating profits estimates from September quarter 1994 to March quarter 1999 include 'abnormal' items reported by businesses with 20 to 30 employees, whereas Company gross operating profits estimates from the June quarter 1999 exclude these items where they are considered out of scope of the national accounts item Gross operating surplus. As these items are generally small in value for businesses with 20 to 30 employees, this difference in treatment is expected to have a minimal impact on the time series. INVENTORIES TIME SERIES 20 With the introduction of the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey, the ABS commenced the collection of inventories from businesses classified to ANZSIC classes 5322 Automotive electrical services, 5323 Smash repairs and 5329 Automotive repair and services nec. These classes contribute about 2.0% to the level estimates for Retail trade inventories and about 0.5% to the level estimate for Total inventories. Their contribution to movement estimates is not consistent with the movement estimates for Retail trade which suggests that the characteristics of these classes differ from other Retail trade classes. As a result, there is a break in the series for Retail trade inventories and Total inventories, between the December quarter 2000 and the March quarter 2001. PRIVATISED MARKETING AUTHORITIES 21 Three significant privatised marketing authorities came into scope of the estimates in this publication from the September quarter 1999. The introduction of these units resulted in a break in series for estimates for inventories and income from sales of goods and services between the June and September quarters 1999 and comparison of the series over time should be undertaken with care. 22 The methodology used by the ABS has ensured that the trend series has not been distorted by the introduction of these units, although there is a trend break evident between the June and September quarters 1999. For this reason, the trend estimates of movement have not been published for the Wholesale trade inventories, Total inventories and Wholesale trade sales series in respect of the September quarter 1999. Document Selection These documents will be presented in a new window.
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