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5676.0 - Business Indicators, Australia, Sep 2003  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/12/2003   
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KEY FIGURES




Jun Qtr 03 to
Sep Qtr 03

Sep Qtr 02 to
Sep Qtr 03


%

%




Income from sales of goods and services (Chain volume measures)



Manufacturing



Trend

0.0

0.0

Seasonally Adjusted

0.7

-0.2

Wholesale trade



Trend

1.7

5.7

Seasonally Adjusted

2.8

4.4

Inventories (Chain volume measures)(a)



Trend

1.9

4.8

Seasonally Adjusted

2.3

5.0

Company profits before income tax(b)



Trend

-0.1

23.1

Seasonally Adjusted

4.6

27.7

Company gross operating profits(b)



Trend

-0.3

-1.1

Seasonally Adjusted

7.6

1.9

Wages and salaries



Original

0.9

6.8


Graph - Inventories (volume terms)
Graph - Company gross operating profits


KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES
  • The trend estimate (in volume terms) for inventories for the September quarter 2003 is $97,128m, an increase of 1.9% over the June quarter 2003. The trend estimate (in volume terms) for income from sales of goods and services in Manufacturing has levelled off over the latest four quarters after seven quarters of growth while Wholesale trade's income from sales of goods and services has been increasing since March quarter 2001. The trend estimate (in current price terms) for company gross operating profits decreased marginally this quarter.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate (in volume terms) for inventories increased by 2.3% in the September quarter 2003, with Wholesale trade and Manufacturing the major contributors. Income from sales of goods and services by Wholesale trade increased by 2.8% while Manufacturing increased by 0.7%.
  • Company gross operating profits increased by 7.6% this quarter, with Property and business services and Retail trade being the major contributors.


NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

A new accounting standard - UIG 53 - has recently been introduced. This new standard governs the method by which sales of speculative construction projects are recorded. Previously, sales were recorded upon completion of a project but, from March 2003, sales are recorded progressively. This standard has been adopted by providers to the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey from the June quarter 2003 and impacts on sales and profits estimates for the Construction industry. The ABS is not able to fully quantify the impact of this change and so, during the transition period, sales and profits estimate for Construction should be treated with caution.

COMPARISON BETWEEN COMPANY GROSS OPERATING PROFITS AND GROSS OPERATING SURPLUS

As was the case last quarter, price decreases have had a significant impact on the value of inventories held by Manufacturing and Wholesale trade. While last quarter's impact was mainly driven by crude oil prices, price falls this quarter have been more widespread. Consequently, a large inventories valuation adjustment will again be applied in calculating the gross operating surplus estimate in the September quarter 2003 release of the Australian National Accounts. No such adjustment is made to the company gross operating profits estimate in this publication and, as a result, users should exercise caution when comparing the two series.

REVISIONS IN THIS ISSUE

As is usually the case after the initial release of a quarter's estimates, revisions have been made to the June quarter 2003 estimates as a result of responses received or revised after the publication of the previous issue. Concurrent seasonal adjustment methodology has also resulted in revisions to previously-released estimates. The net effect on June quarter 2003 estimates of these revisions has been to adjust: the seasonally adjusted chain volume estimates for total inventories by +0.7%, Manufacturing income from sales of goods and services by -0.8% and wholesale trade income from sales of goods and services by -0.8%; seasonally adjusted current price estimates for company gross operating profits by -0.3%; and original current price estimates for wages and salaries by
+0.3%.

INDUSTRY TREND ESTIMATES


TOTAL ALL INDUSTRIES

Company gross operating profits
Graph - Total all industries, Company gross operating profits


Inventories
Graph - Total all industries, Inventories



The current price trend estimate for total company gross operating profits decreased marginally following decreases of around 1% in the previous two quarters.

The trend estimate for total inventories (in volume terms) has increased strongly in the latest three quarters driven mainly by a strong build up in Wholesale trade.


MINING

Company gross operating profits
Graph - Mining, Company gross operating profits




Inventories
Graph - Mining, Inventories



The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits has decreased sharply for the third successive quarter. The current level is the lowest recorded figure since December quarter 1999.

The trend estimate for inventories (in volume terms) has increased in the past two quarters following three quarters of falls.

MANUFACTURING

Company gross operating profits
Graph - Manufacturing, Company gross operating profits


Inventories
Graph - Manufacturing, Inventories


Income, from sales of goods and services
Graph - Manufacturing, Incoming, from sales of goods and services



The current price trend estimates for company gross operating profits has continued to fall in September quarter, extending the period of decline to four quarters.

The trend estimate for inventories (in volume terms) increased by 1.5% this quarter following a similar increase in the previous quarter.

The trend estimate for income from sales of goods and services (in volume terms) has remained relatively flat over the latest four quarters after seven quarters of sustained growth.


CONSTRUCTION

Company gross operating profits
Graph - Construction, Company gross operation profits



The current price trend estimates for company gross operating profits has decreased in the latest three quarters and is now at a similar level to that recorded in March 2002.


WHOLESALE TRADE

Company gross operating profits
Graph - Wholesale trade, company gross operating profits


Inventories
Graph - Wholesale trade, Inventories


Income from sales of goods and services
Graph - Wholesale trade, Income from sales of goods and services



The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits has started to increase again in the latest two quarters after being flat in the March quarter 2003.

The trend estimate for inventories (in volume terms) has been growing strongly over the past three quarters, continuing the growth that commenced in June quarter 2002.

The trend estimate for income from sales of goods and services (in volume terms) has been growing at a steady rate since March quarter 2001.

RETAIL TRADE

Company gross operating profits
Graph - Retail trade, Company gross operating profits


Inventories
Graph - Retail trade,  Inventories


Income from sales of goods and services
Graph - Retail trade, Income from sales of goods and services



The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits increased by 8.3% this quarter, with a slight fall in March quarter 2003 breaking sustained growth since March quarter 2001.

The trend estimate for inventories (in volume terms) has increased steadily in the latest four quarters after decreases in the previous four quarters.

The trend estimate for income from sales of goods and services (in volume terms) has increased steadily in the latest three quarters after being flat in the September and December quarters 2002.

TRANSPORT AND STORAGE

Company gross operating profits
Graph - Transport and Storage, Company gross operating profits


Income from sales of goods and services
Graph - Transport and Storage, Income from sales of goods and services



The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits has decreased in the latest three quarters after a period of sustained growth from September quarter 2001.

The trend estimate for income from sales of goods and services (in volume terms) decreased in the latest four quarters after increasing in the previous seven quarters.


PROPERTY AND BUSINESS SERVICES

Company gross operating profits
Graph - Property and Business Services, Company gross operating profits


Income from sales of goods and services
Graph - Property and Business Services, Income from sales of goods and services



The current price trend estimate for company gross operating profits has increased in the latest two quarters, following decreases in the previous three quarters.

The trend estimate for income from sales of goods and services (in volume terms) has increased in the latest two quarters after being relatively flat in the previous quarter, which was preceded by six quarters of decline.

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