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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 44 and 45 in the EN.

Buildings and Structures

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 6.7% on this quarter (2) falls by 6.7% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2006 December 7 623 0.9 7 623 0.9 7 623 0.9 2007 March (a)8 388 na (a)8 387 na (a)8 430 na June 8 679 3.5 8 674 3.4 8 658 2.7 September 8 727 0.6 8 673 - 8 466 -2.2 - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) (a) Break in series between December 2006 and March 2007.

Equipment, Plant and Machinery

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.9% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.9% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2006 December 10 721 0.6 10 721 0.6 10 721 0.6 2007 March (a)11 227 na (a)11 211 na (a)11 277 na June 11 506 2.5 11 510 2.7 11 487 1.9 September 11 713 1.8 11 749 2.1 11 431 -0.5 (a) Break in series between December 2006 and March 2007.

Total Capital Expenditure

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.4% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.4% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2006 December 18 335 0.8 18 335 0.9 18 335 0.9 2007 March (a)19 618 na (a)19 584 na (a)19 738 na June 20 164 2.8 20 168 3.0 20 114 1.9 September 20 406 1.2 20 461 1.5 19 718 -2.0 (a) Break in series between December 2006 and March 2007.