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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 41 and 42 in the Explanatory Notes.

Buildings and Structures

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.1% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2017 December 16 561 -0.5 16 561 -0.5 16 561 -0.5 2018 March 16 317 -1.5 16 308 -1.5 16 331 -1.4 June 16 022 -1.8 16 027 -1.7 16 018 -1.9 September 15 760 -1.6 15 835 -1.2 15 722 -1.8

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 1.9% on this quarter (2) falls by 1.9% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2017 December 13 053 2.4 13 053 2.4 13 053 2.4 2018 March 13 308 1.9 13 311 2.0 13 335 2.2 June 13 520 1.6 13 520 1.6 13 511 1.3 September 13 691 1.3 13 701 1.3 13 584 0.5

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.0% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2017 December 29 617 0.7 29 617 0.7 29 617 0.7 2018 March 29 625 0.0 29 617 - 29 664 0.2 June 29 543 -0.3 29 550 -0.2 29 533 -0.4 September 29 434 -0.4 29 537 0.0 29 310 -0.8 - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)