5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Sep 2006  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/11/2006   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 43 and 44 in the Explanatory Notes.


Buildings and Structures


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 6.7%
on this quarter
(2) falls by 6.7%
on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%
2005
December
6 628
11.5
6 628
11.5
6 628
11.5
2006
March
7 126
7.5
7 166
8.1
7 201
8.7
June
7 315
2.6
7 305
1.9
7 291
1.2
September
7 275
-0.5
7 227
-1.1
7 056
-3.2


Equipment, Plant and Machinery


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.9%
on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.9%
on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%
2005
December
11 205
4.5
11 205
4.5
11 205
4.5
2006
March
11 308
0.9
11 307
0.9
11 370
1.5
June
11 251
-0.5
11 256
-0.5
11 233
-1.2
September
11 075
-1.6
11 226
-0.3
10 922
-2.8


Total Capital Expenditure


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.4%
on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.4%
on this quarter
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%
2005
December
17 835
7.1
17 835
7.1
17 835
7.1
2006
March
18 443
3.4
18 465
3.5
18 606
4.3
June
18 584
0.8
18 584
0.6
18 535
-0.4
September
18 383
-1.1
18 565
-0.1
17 890
-3.5