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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 41 and 42 in the Explanatory Notes.

Buildings and Structures

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.1% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2012 June 25 992 3.6 25 992 3.6 25 992 3.6 September 25 894 -0.4 25 956 -0.1 26 014 0.1 December 25 177 -2.8 25 177 -3.0 25 155 -3.3 2013 March 24 424 -3.0 24 584 -2.4 24 303 -3.4

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 1.9% on this quarter (2) falls by 1.9% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2012 June 15 021 1.5 15 021 1.5 15 021 1.5 September 15 134 0.8 15 143 0.8 15 177 1.0 December 14 993 -0.9 14 992 -1.0 14 981 -1.3 2013 March 14 702 -1.9 14 754 -1.6 14 595 -2.6

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.0% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2012 June 41 025 2.9 41 025 2.9 41 025 2.9 September 41 027 - 41 100 0.2 41 191 0.4 December 40 171 -2.1 40 175 -2.2 40 143 -2.5 2013 March 39 083 -2.7 39 342 -2.1 38 903 -3.1 - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)