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5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Mar 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 27/05/2004   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 36 and 37 in the Explanatory Notes.


Buildings and Structures

Graph - What If Buildings

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 6.7%
on this quarter

(2) falls by 6.7%
on this quarter

$m
%
$m
%
$m
%

2003
June
3,356
2.9
3,356
2.9
3,356
2.9
September
3,430
2.2
3,426
2.1
3,444
2.6
December
3,462
0.9
3,462
1.0
3,456
0.3
2004
March
3,451
-0.3
3,484
0.6
3,399
-1.7


Equipment, Plant and Machinery

Graph - What If, Equipment Plant and Machinery

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.9%
on this quarter

(2) falls by 4.9%
on this quarter

$m
%
$m
%
$m
%

2003
June
10,239
2.5
10,239
2.5
10,239
2.5
September
10,419
1.8
10,408
1.7
10,468
2.2
December
10,547
1.2
10,551
1.4
10,529
0.6
2004
March
10,588
0.4
10,665
1.1
10,377
-1.4


Total Capital Expenditure

Graph - What If Total Capital Expenditure

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.4%
on this quarter

(2) falls by 4.4%
on this quarter

$m
%
$m
%
$m
%

2003
June
13,595
2.6
13,595
2.6
13,595
2.6
September
13,848
1.9
13,819
1.7
13,928
2.5
December
14,008
1.2
14,017
1.4
13,979
0.4
2004
March
14,044
0.3
14,224
1.5
13,700
-2.0




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