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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 36 and 37 in the Explanatory Notes.

Buildings and Structures

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 6.7% on this quarter (2) falls by 6.7% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2003 June 3,356 2.9 3,356 2.9 3,356 2.9 September 3,430 2.2 3,426 2.1 3,444 2.6 December 3,462 0.9 3,462 1.0 3,456 0.3 2004 March 3,451 -0.3 3,484 0.6 3,399 -1.7

Equipment, Plant and Machinery

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.9% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.9% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2003 June 10,239 2.5 10,239 2.5 10,239 2.5 September 10,419 1.8 10,408 1.7 10,468 2.2 December 10,547 1.2 10,551 1.4 10,529 0.6 2004 March 10,588 0.4 10,665 1.1 10,377 -1.4

Total Capital Expenditure

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.4% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.4% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2003 June 13,595 2.6 13,595 2.6 13,595 2.6 September 13,848 1.9 13,819 1.7 13,928 2.5 December 14,008 1.2 14,017 1.4 13,979 0.4 2004 March 14,044 0.3 14,224 1.5 13,700 -2.0