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5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Mar 2008  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 29/05/2008   
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EXPERIMENTAL PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE


IN CURRENT PRICE TERMS


PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE SERIES

The projected series below apply historical realisation ratios to contemporary expectations to convert these to quarterly figures. Trend estimates of resultant quarterly time series of actual and expected expenditure are produced.

The following graphs, with accompanying commentary, show the projected capital expenditure series based on March quarter 2008 data, which includes expected expenditure up to and including the June quarter 2009. Please see paragraphs 29 to 33 of the Explanatory Notes for further details about the methodology and cautionary notes for these series.


TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

While there has been some tapering of the trend series the projections for total capital expenditure indicate renewed strength in the series to drive total Capex towards the $30,000m a quarter level by the end of the 2008-09 financial year.

Graph: Projected Total Expenditure


BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

The projections for the building and structures asset class are very strong for the coming fifteen months and are the main driver behind the strength in the total Capex model. The projections indicate no signs of a weakening building and structures series.

Graph: Projected Building Expenditure


EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

The equipment, plant and machinery modelled projections suggest that the current March 2008 quarter turn in the series is only a slight adjustment with momentum to return in coming quarters before a possible shift in the series at the end of the next financial year.

Graph: Projected Equipment Expenditure


MINING

The Mining industry has grown to record high levels over the past five years and the modelled projections suggest that this growth will continue to move beyond the $10,000m level by the end of the coming financial year.

Graph: Projected Mining Expenditure


MANUFACTURING

The Manufacturing trend series has shown solid growth in the past three quarters after an extended period of decline in capital expenditure. The model is projecting that the rate of growth will not be sustained and will be replaced with a more moderate rise over the coming five quarters.

Graph: Projected Manufacturing Expenditure


OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

The Other selected industries series has been affected by the trend break applied between December quarter 2006 and March quarter 2007 and since that time the series has shown a large shift in level. Despite the March quarter 2008 showing a slight fall, the projections moving forward remain extremely strong.

Graph: Projected Other Selected Industries Expenditure


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