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5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Jun 2009 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 27/08/2009   
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The projected series below apply historical realisation ratios to contemporary expectations to convert these to quarterly figures. Trend estimates of resultant quarterly time series of actual and expected expenditure are produced.

The following graphs, with accompanying commentary, show the projected capital expenditure series based on June quarter 2009 data, which includes expected expenditure up to and including the June quarter 2010. Please see paragraphs 29 to 33 of the Explanatory Notes for further details about the methodology and cautionary notes for these series.


Expectations for 2009-10, reported in the June quarter, strengthened in current price terms relative to the same expectations reported in earlier periods. The actual trend series was slightly weaker in the June quarter 2009. The projection for the total capital expenditure series is for a return to growth to the end of the financial year 2009-10.

Graph: Projected Total Expenditure


The actual trend for buildings and structures was essentially flat in the June quarter 2009, slightly above the projected trend. The projections for buildings and structures indicate a dip in expenditure in the September quarter, before a rise in the series to the end of the 2009-10 financial year. Expenditure expectations for 2009-10 rose strongly in the June quarter, with the increase being concentrated in Mining.

Graph: Projected Building Expenditure


Projections of expenditure for equipment, plant and machinery indicate near term growth before a decline in the June half 2010. The actual trend in the June 2009 quarter tracked slightly below the series projection.

Graph: Projected Equipment Expenditure


The Mining industry has delivered weakness in capital expenditure relative to the strong growth in the series since the start of 2005. The modelled projections imply that this series will hover around the $9 billion per quarter level through the next quarter but resume a strong growth trajectory as the 2009-10 financial year progresses.

Graph: Projected Mining Expenditure


The Manufacturing actual trend series was flat in the June quarter 2009. The model is projecting imminent weakness in the series before some recovery in expenditure from mid 2009-10. Expectations data collected in the June quarter survey for 2009-10 increased substantially compared to the expectations for 2009-10 collected in the March quarter survey.

Graph: Projected Manufacturing Expenditure


The projected trend for the Other selected industries series suggests a flat period in quarterly expenditure in the financial year ahead.

Graph: Projected Other Selected Industries Expenditure

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