5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Dec 2008 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 26/02/2009   
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EXPERIMENTAL PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE


IN CURRENT PRICE TERMS


PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE SERIES

The projected series below apply historical realisation ratios to contemporary expectations to convert these to quarterly figures. Trend estimates of resultant quarterly time series of actual and expected expenditure are produced.

The following graphs, with accompanying commentary, show the projected capital expenditure series based on December quarter 2008 data, which includes expected expenditure up to and including the June quarter 2010. Please see paragraphs 29 to 33 of the Explanatory Notes for further details about the methodology and cautionary notes for these series.


TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

Reported first half of 2009 expectations for total capital expenditure weakened in the December quarter. There was however continued strength in the actual trend series. The projection for the total capital expenditure series suggests slowing growth to end June 2009 before the series rises beyond the $30,000m expenditure per quarter level as the 2009-10 financial year progresses.

Graph: Projected Total Expenditure


BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

The projections for buildings and structures remain strong in the period to end June 2010. While expenditure expectations for the first half of 2009 decreased in the December survey data compared to September quarter, the first estimate of 2009-10 expenditure is strong relative to previous years. The buildings and structures projections are the main driver behind the strength displayed in the projection for total Capex.

Graph: Projected Building Expenditure


EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

Projections of expenditure for equipment, plant and machinery indicate near term weakness before recovery to levels near current quarter actual expenditure levels. The actual trend noticeably outpaced the projected level in the December 2008 quarter.

Graph: Projected Equipment Expenditure


MINING

The Mining industry has experienced high growth since the start of 2005. The actual trend continued that pattern in the December quarter. Expectations for the first half of 2009 have weakened since the September survey. The first estimate for 2009-10 is a record high first estimate. The modelled projections suggest that this series will build towards the $12,000m level by the end of the 2009-10 financial year.

Graph: Projected Mining Expenditure


MANUFACTURING

The Manufacturing actual trend series was stronger in the December quarter compared to recent quarters. The actual trend has diverged above the projected trend. The model is projecting imminent weakness in the series before significant growth through 2009-10. Expectations for the first half of 2009 decreased substantially in data collected in the December quarter survey.

Graph: Projected Manufacturing Expenditure


OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

In the December quarter, the Other selected industries series continued the recent growth in actual trend. The projected trend suggests an easing in growth of quarterly expenditure for Other selected industries in the six month period ahead. Growth is projected to resume in the series through the 2009-10 financial year.

Graph: Projected Other Selected Industries Expenditure