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5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Dec 2007  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 28/02/2008   
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EXPERIMENTAL PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE


IN CURRENT PRICE TERMS


PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE SERIES

The projected series below apply historical realisation ratios to contemporary expectations to convert these to quarterly figures. Trend estimates of resultant quarterly time series of actual and expected expenditure are produced.


The following graphs, with accompanying commentary, show the projected capital expenditure series based on December quarter 2007 data, which includes expected expenditure up to and including the June quarter 2009. Please see paragraphs 29 to 33 of the Explanatory Notes for further details about the methodology and cautionary notes for these series.



TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

With the addition of the first estimate for 2008-09 the projections for total capital expenditure are very strong for the coming eighteen months. The model is forecasting continued growth to move the series well above the current high levels.

Graph: Projected Total Expenditure



BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

The buildings and structures current price trend series has seen continued growth over the past five years and the projections shown in this series are suggesting further strong growth through the remainder of this financial year and in 2008-09.

Graph: Projected Building Expenditure



EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

Projections for the equipment, plant and machinery current price trend series remain very strong in the coming twelve months with a possible turning point in the second half of the 2008-09 financial year.

Graph: Projected Equipment Expenditure



MINING

The Mining current price trend series has been exceptionally strong in the past five years. With the availability of the first estimate for 2008-09 the model is projecting this series to grow to above $10,000m capital expenditure per quarter.

Graph: Projected Mining Expenditure



MANUFACTURING

In recent quarters the Manufacturing trend series has turned upwards after a sustained period of decline that began in late 2005. The projections for the series over the coming eighteen months suggest there will be growth in the series but at a moderate level.

Graph: Projected Manufacturing Expenditure



OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

This series was affected by the trend break applied between December quarter 2006 and March quarter 2007. The new trend has shown a large shift in level and the series projections look to be extremely strong for the remainder of 2007-08 and for the 2008-09 financial year.

Graph: Projected Other Selected Industries Expenditure

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