5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Sep 2012 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/11/2012   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 30 and 31 in the Explanatory Notes.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:

1 The October 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the September 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

2 The October 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the September 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

The percentage change chosen is the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.1% on this month
(2) falls by 2.1% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change
March 2012
45 274
-0.7
45 274
-0.7
45 274
-0.7
April 2012
45 075
-0.4
45 039
-0.5
45 077
-0.4
May 2012
45 089
0.0
45 024
0.0
45 090
0.0
June 2012
45 270
0.4
45 239
0.5
45 272
0.4
July 2012
45 508
0.5
45 579
0.8
45 492
0.5
August 2012
45 764
0.6
45 963
0.8
45 674
0.4
September 2012
45 994
0.5
46 360
0.9
45 816
0.3