5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Jul 2005  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/09/2005   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 29 and 30 in the Explanatory Notes.


The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates:


1 The August 2005 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is higher than the July 2005 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.


2 The August 2005 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is lower than the July 2005 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.


The percentage change of 3.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 3.0%.


Number of Dwellings Financed

Graph: Number of Dwelling Units Financed

What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 3% on this month
(2) falls by 3% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

February 2005
54 680
1.3
54 681
1.3
54 744
1.4
March 2005
55 067
0.7
55 066
0.7
55 177
0.8
April 2005
55 156
0.2
55 151
0.2
55 207
0.1
May 2005
55 081
-0.1
55 109
-0.1
54 963
-0.4
June 2005
54 927
-0.3
55 065
-0.1
54 581
-0.7
July 2005
54 721
-0.4
55 065
-
54 153
-0.8
August 2005
-
-
55 038
-
53 661
-0.9

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)