5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Dec 2004  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 11/02/2005   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 29 and 30 in the Explanatory Notes.


The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates:


1 The January 2005 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is higher than the December 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.


2 The January 2005 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is lower than the December 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.0%.


The percentage change of 3.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 3.0%.


Number of Dwellings Financed

Graph: What if Graph
What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 3% on this month
(2) falls by 3% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change
July 2004
49,264
0.4
49,203
0.3
49,264
0.4
August 2004
49,582
0.6
49,493
0.6
49,599
0.7
September 2004
50,014
0.9
49,973
1.0
50,026
0.9
October 2004
50,500
1.0
50,598
1.3
50,459
0.9
November 2004
50,987
1.0
51,275
1.3
50,813
0.7
December 2004
51,438
0.9
51,954
1.3
51,084
0.5
January 2005
-
-
52,541
1.1
51,229
0.3
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)