5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Apr 2013 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 11/06/2013   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 30 and 31 in the Explanatory Notes.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:

1 The May 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the April 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

2 The May 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the April 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

The percentage change chosen is the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.1% on this month
(2) falls by 2.1% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

October 2012
45 685
-0.3
45 685
-0.3
45 685
-0.3
November 2012
45 549
-0.3
45 505
-0.4
45 545
-0.3
December 2012
45 563
0.0
45 487
0.0
45 556
0.0
January 2013
45 825
0.6
45 788
0.7
45 822
0.6
February 2013
46 319
1.1
46 419
1.4
46 328
1.1
March 2013
46 930
1.3
47 246
1.8
46 944
1.3
April 2013
47 566
1.4
48 099
1.8
47 531
1.2