ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $644m in October 2017, a decrease of $112m on the surplus in September 2017.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $105m in October 2017, a decrease of $1,499m on the surplus in September 2017.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Aug 2017	Sep 2017	Oct 2017	Oct 2017	Oct 2017
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				810	1 604	105	-1 499	-93
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			31 916	32 774	31 871	-903	-3
		Total goods		24 582	25 347	24 562	-785	-3
			Rural goods(b)	4 098	4 105	4 020	-85	-2
			Non-rural goods(b)	19 154	19 694	18 620	-1 074	-5
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	47	48	60	12	25
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 283	1 500	1 862	362	24
		Total services		7 334	7 427	7 309	-118	-2
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-31 106	-31 170	-31 766	596	2
		Total goods		-23 748	-23 902	-24 379	477	2
			Consumption goods	-7 969	-8 158	-8 355	197	2
			Capital goods	-6 088	-6 154	-6 034	-120	-2
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 240	-9 205	-9 590	385	4
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-450	-385	-401	16	4
		Total services		-7 358	-7 268	-7 387	119	2
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				901	756	644	-112	-15
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			32 225	32 122	32 073	-49	-
		Total goods		24 903	24 768	24 707	-61	-
			Rural goods(b)	4 107	4 096	4 086	-10	-
			Non-rural goods(b)	19 167	19 038	18 952	-86	-
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	51	52	52	-	-
			Non-monetary gold	1 578	1 582	1 617	35	2
		Total services		7 322	7 354	7 366	12	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-31 325	-31 366	-31 429	63	-
		Total goods		-24 006	-24 030	-24 096	66	-
			Consumption goods	-8 231	-8 201	-8 200	-1	-
			Capital goods	-6 142	-6 158	-6 151	-7	-
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 201	-9 248	-9 325	77	1
			Non-monetary gold	-432	-423	-420	-3	-1
		Total services		-7 319	-7 336	-7 333	-3	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between September and October 2017, the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $49m to $32,073m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $903m (3%) to $31,871m. Non-rural goods fell $1,074m (5%) and rural goods fell $85m (2%). Non-monetary gold rose $362m (24%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $12m (25%). Services credits fell $118m (2%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Aug 2017	Sep 2017	Oct 2017	Oct 2017	Oct 2017
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				24 582	25 347	24 562	-785	-3
	General merchandise			23 252	23 799	22 640	-1 159	-5
		Rural goods		4 098	4 105	4 020	-85	-2
			Meat and meat preparations	1 033	1 045	986	-59	-6
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	748	691	698	7	1
			Wool and sheepskins	335	357	372	15	4
			Other rural(a)	1 982	2 012	1 963	-49	-2
		Non-rural goods		19 154	19 694	18 620	-1 074	-5
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	7 280	7 861	7 068	-793	-10
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	4 469	4 417	4 296	-121	-3
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	2 659	2 638	2 641	3	-
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	877	889	743	-146	-16
			Machinery	875	849	854	5	1
			Transport equipment	416	390	311	-79	-20
			Other manufactures	1 621	1 620	1 628	8	-
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	826	899	935	36	4
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	132	130	145	15	12
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			47	48	60	12	25
	Non-monetary gold(e)			1 283	1 500	1 862	362	24
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $10m to $4,086m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $85m (2%) to $4,020m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• meat and meat preparations, down $59m (6%)
• other rural, down $49m (2%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $86m to $18,952m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $1,074m (5%) to $18,620m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, down $793m (10%)
• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), down $146m (16%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, down $121m (3%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $52m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $12m (25%) to $60m.


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $35m (2%) to $1,617m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $362m (24%) to $1,862m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Aug 2017	Sep 2017	Oct 2017	Oct 2017	Oct 2017
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			7 334	7 427	7 309	-118	-2
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		7	6	7	1	17
	Transport		676	677	684	7	1
		Passenger(b)	260	260	261	1	-
		Freight(c)	20	18	20	2	11
		Other	253	254	256	2	1
		Postal and courier services(d)	143	144	147	3	2
	Travel		4 767	4 857	4 741	-116	-2
	Other services		1 884	1 887	1 877	-10	-1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		5 026	5 117	5 002	-115	-2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $12m to $7,366m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $118m (2%) to $7,309m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, down $116m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $115m (2%) to $5,002m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 23% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between September and October 2017, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $63m to $31,429m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $596m (2%) to $31,766m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $385m (4%), consumption goods rose $197m (2%) and non-monetary gold rose $16m (4%). Capital goods fell $120m (2%). Services debits rose $119m (2%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Aug 2017	Sep 2017	Oct 2017	Oct 2017	Oct 2017
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-23 748	-23 902	-24 379	477	2
	General merchandise			-23 298	-23 517	-23 978	461	2
		Consumption goods		-7 969	-8 158	-8 355	197	2
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 154	-1 127	-1 239	112	10
			Household electrical items	-494	-493	-535	42	9
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 945	-2 116	-2 051	-65	-3
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 387	-1 412	-1 482	70	5
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-529	-526	-584	58	11
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 459	-2 485	-2 465	-20	-1
		Capital goods		-6 088	-6 154	-6 034	-120	-2
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 733	-1 776	-1 783	7	-
			ADP equipment	-827	-770	-797	27	4
			Telecommunications equipment	-899	-889	-983	94	11
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-266	-298	-246	-52	-17
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-938	-978	-895	-83	-8
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-1 426	-1 443	-1 330	-113	-8
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-9 240	-9 205	-9 590	385	4
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-157	-134	-157	23	17
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-193	-174	-188	14	8
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-2 359	-2 374	-2 648	274	12
			Parts for transport equipment	-997	-1 020	-994	-26	-3
			Parts for ADP equipment	-57	-57	-56	-1	-2
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 329	-1 352	-1 335	-17	-1
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-309	-386	-382	-4	-1
			Paper and paperboard	-183	-182	-188	6	3
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-123	-125	-122	-3	-2
			Iron and steel	-248	-247	-260	13	5
			Plastics	-337	-337	-341	4	1
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 739	-2 695	-2 737	42	2
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-124	-37	-100	63	170
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-84	-84	-82	-2	-2
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-450	-385	-401	16	4
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $1m to $8,200m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $197m (2%) to $8,355m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $112m (10%)
• textiles, clothing and footwear, up $70m (5%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $7m to $6,151m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $120m (2%) to $6,034m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• capital goods n.e.s., down $113m (8%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $83m (8%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $52m (17%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• telecommunications equipment, up $94m (11%)
• ADP equipment, up $27m (4%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $77m (1%) to $9,325m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $385m (4%) to $9,590m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $274m (12%)
• other merchandise goods, up $63m
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $42m (2%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $3m (1%) to $420m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $16m (4%) to $401m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Aug 2017	Sep 2017	Oct 2017	Oct 2017	Oct 2017
			$m	$m	$m	%	%
Total services debits			-7 358	-7 268	-7 387	119	2
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-90	-45	-46	1	2
	Transport		-1 389	-1 364	-1 465	101	7
		Passenger(c)	-589	-570	-604	34	6
		Freight	-710	-707	-725	18	3
		Other(b)	-73	-72	-118	46	64
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-16	-15	-18	3	20
	Travel		-3 581	-3 561	-3 601	40	1
	Other services		-2 298	-2 298	-2 275	-23	-1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-4 170	-4 131	-4 205	74	2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits fell $3m to $7,333m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $119m (2%) to $7,387m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transport, up $101m (7%)
• travel, up $40m (1%).

Partly offsetting these rises was other services, down $23m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $74m (2%) to $4,205m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 23% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in
		May 2017	Jun 2017	Jul 2017	Aug 2017	Sep 2017	Oct 2017
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	1	-1	1	-3	9	-6
	Unit value	-10	-1	11	5	8	-5
Fines
	Quantity	5	-9	2	7	1	-2
	Unit value	-14	-10	14	8	-5	-11
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	176	4	-1	2	1	-20
	Unit value	10	-6	p-19	p-7	p4	p4
Semi-soft
	Quantity	68	7	-23	30	-15	2
	Unit value	-	-12	p-9	p-4	p-1	p2
Thermal
	Quantity	1	-	18	-14	4	-2
	Unit value	3	-4	-1	5	2	p3
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	23	6	4	-3	-20	22
	Unit value	-3	5	-6	-1	-1	-1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to DIBP. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to DIBP. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to DIBP and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between September and October 2017 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, down $179m (10%), with quantities down 6% and unit values down 5%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $90m (7%), with quantities down 1% and unit values down 5%
• Taiwan fell $44m (56%), with quantities down 48% and unit values down 14%
• Japan fell $37m (19%), with quantities down 21% and unit values up 2%.

Iron ore fines, down $504m (13%), with quantities down 2% and unit values down 11%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $424m (13%), with quantities down 2% and unit values down 11%
• Japan fell $38m (14%), with quantities down 6% and unit values down 8%
• Taiwan fell $34m (61%), with quantities down 53% and unit values down 16%
• the Republic of Korea fell $32m (13%), with quantities down 5% and unit values down 8%.

Hard coking coal, down $331m (17%), with quantities down 20% and unit values up 4%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $104m (21%), with quantities down 23% and unit values up 3%
• Japan fell $65m (20%), with quantities down 19% and unit values down 1%
• the Republic of Korea fell $60m (40%), with quantities down 41% and unit values up 3%
• Netherlands fell $54m (34%), with quantities down 31% and unit values down 5%.

Semi-soft coal, up $35m (5%), with quantities up 2% and unit values up 2%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $96m (60%), with quantities up 46% and unit values up 10%
• India fell $35m (29%), with quantities down 21% and unit values down 10%
• Netherlands fell $15m, with no exports in October 2017
• Taiwan fell $14m (26%), with quantities down 26%.

Thermal coal, up $26m (1%), with quantities down 2% and unit values up 3%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $171m (70%), with quantities up 60% and unit values up 7%
• Taiwan fell $105m (42%), with quantities down 41% and unit values down 1%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $378m (21%), with quantities up 22% and unit values down 1%.


COUNTRY BREAKDOWN

The following charts show Australia's major trading partners for the financial year 2016-17. The charts include both trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis). The first chart shows the countries with the largest two-way trade, i.e., combined trade in both exports and imports of goods and services. The second chart shows total exports and total imports for each of these countries.


Combining trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis) provides a good approximation of total trade. Some components will be excluded (e.g. merchanting credits and goods procured in ports by carriers debits) while the manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others component, will be double counted. These components are unlikely to impact on the broader analysis.

Exports data with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are now being excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown in the time series spreadsheet table 14a. In 2016-17, these restrictions represented 2.11% of the total exports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

Imports data with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14b. In 2016-17, these restrictions represented 2.82% of the total imports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

For further details about these restrictions see Explanatory Notes paragraphs 26-28.