ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,885m in May 2016, a decrease of $290m (13%) on the deficit in April 2016.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,218m in May 2016, an increase of $433m (24%) on the deficit in April 2016.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Mar 2016	Apr 2016	May 2016	May 2016	May 2016
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				-2 201	-1 785	-2 218	-433	-24
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			25 957	25 982	26 170	188	1
		Total goods		20 273	20 272	20 428	156	1
			Rural goods(b)	3 321	3 458	3 381	-77	-2
			Non-rural goods(b)	15 131	14 856	15 276	420	3
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	32	28	28	-	-
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 790	1 930	1 744	-186	-10
		Total services		5 684	5 710	5 741	31	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-28 158	-27 767	-28 387	620	2
		Total goods		-21 830	-21 481	-22 091	610	3
			Consumption goods	-7 932	-7 984	-7 903	-81	-1
			Capital goods	-5 160	-4 783	-4 965	182	4
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-8 244	-8 287	-8 672	385	5
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-494	-427	-551	124	29
		Total services		-6 328	-6 286	-6 296	10	-
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				-2 541	-2 175	-1 885	290	13
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			25 526	25 768	26 016	248	1
		Total goods		19 828	20 064	20 308	244	1
			Rural goods(b)	3 437	3 394	3 362	-32	-1
			Non-rural goods(b)	14 770	14 927	15 092	165	1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	30	30	29	-1	-3
			Non-monetary gold	1 591	1 713	1 825	112	7
		Total services		5 697	5 704	5 709	5	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-28 067	-27 943	-27 901	-42	-
		Total goods		-21 769	-21 681	-21 661	-20	-
			Consumption goods	-7 959	-7 961	-7 955	-6	-
			Capital goods	-4 999	-4 932	-4 899	-33	-1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-8 378	-8 320	-8 303	-17	-
			Non-monetary gold	-433	-468	-504	36	8
		Total services		-6 297	-6 262	-6 241	-21	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between April and May 2016, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $248m (1%) to $26,016m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $188m (1%) to $26,170m. Non-rural goods rose $420m (3%). Non-monetary gold fell $186m (10%) and rural goods fell $77m (2%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $28m. Services credits rose $31m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Mar 2016	Apr 2016	May 2016	May 2016	May 2016
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				20 273	20 272	20 428	156	1
	General merchandise			18 451	18 314	18 656	342	2
		Rural goods		3 321	3 458	3 381	-77	-2
			Meat and meat preparations	950	953	984	31	3
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	556	602	556	-46	-8
			Wool and sheepskins	274	275	282	7	3
			Other rural(a)	1 541	1 628	1 559	-69	-4
		Non-rural goods		15 131	14 856	15 276	420	3
			Metal ores and minerals	5 890	5 826	6 038	212	4
			Coal, coke and briquettes(b)	2 745	2 619	2 914	295	11
			Other mineral fuels(c)	1 903	1 814	1 752	-62	-3
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	777	694	736	42	6
			Machinery	839	859	838	-21	-2
			Transport equipment	464	488	447	-41	-8
			Other manufactures	1 527	1 589	1 598	9	1
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	863	842	826	-16	-2
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	122	124	127	3	2
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(d)			32	28	28	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(d)			1 790	1 930	1 744	-186	-10
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $32m (1%) to $3,362m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $77m (2%) to $3,381m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other rural, down $69m (4%)
• cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $46m (8%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $165m (1%) to $15,092m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $420m (3%) to $15,276m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, up $295m (11%)
• metal ores and minerals, up $212m (4%).

Partly offsetting these rises was other mineral fuels, down $62m (3%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (3%) to $29m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $28m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $112m (7%) to $1,825m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $186m (10%) to $1,744m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Mar 2016	Apr 2016	May 2016	May 2016	May 2016
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services credits			5 684	5 710	5 741	31	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		2	2	2	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		4	5	5	-	-
	Transport		570	564	568	4	1
		Passenger(b)	214	205	209	4	2
		Freight(c)	27	23	23	-	-
		Other	229	229	230	1	-
		Postal and courier services(d)	101	106	106	-	-
	Travel		3 454	3 475	3 490	15	-
	Other services		1 653	1 665	1 677	12	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related service credits(e)		3 668	3 680	3 698	18	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, service credits rose $5m to $5,709m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $31m (1%) to $5,741m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $15m
• other services, up $12m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service credits rose $18m to $3,698m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 22% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between April and May 2016, the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $42m to $27,901m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $620m (2%) to $28,387m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $385m (5%), capital goods rose $182m (4%) and non-monetary gold rose $124m (29%). Consumption goods fell $81m (1%). Services debits rose $10m.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Mar 2016	Apr 2016	May 2016	May 2016	May 2016
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-21 830	-21 481	-22 091	610	3
	General merchandise			-21 336	-21 054	-21 540	486	2
		Consumption goods		-7 932	-7 984	-7 903	-81	-1
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 159	-1 206	-1 178	-28	-2
			Household electrical items	-500	-501	-464	-37	-7
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 934	-1 902	-1 892	-10	-1
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 365	-1 364	-1 384	20	1
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-515	-501	-503	2	-
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 459	-2 510	-2 483	-27	-1
		Capital goods		-5 160	-4 783	-4 965	182	4
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 575	-1 660	-1 619	-41	-2
			ADP equipment	-706	-722	-730	8	1
			Telecommunications equipment	-904	-762	-905	143	19
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-231	-156	-125	-31	-20
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-825	-735	-727	-8	-1
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-920	-748	-858	110	15
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-8 244	-8 287	-8 672	385	5
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-150	-157	-151	-6	-4
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-204	-142	-223	81	57
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-1 657	-1 939	-2 112	173	9
			Parts for transport equipment	-965	-1 001	-976	-25	-2
			Parts for ADP equipment	-50	-50	-51	1	2
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 168	-1 183	-1 176	-7	-1
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-324	-320	-336	16	5
			Paper and paperboard	-176	-199	-198	-1	-1
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-125	-112	-125	13	12
			Iron and steel	-227	-184	-179	-5	-3
			Plastics	-322	-339	-338	-1	-
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 729	-2 539	-2 574	35	1
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-57	-34	-146	112	329
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-91	-88	-88	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-494	-427	-551	124	29
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $6m to $7,955m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $81m (1%) to $7,903m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• household electrical items, down $37m (7%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, down $28m (2%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., down $27m (1%).

Partly offsetting these falls was textiles, clothing and footwear, up $20m (1%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $33m (1%) to $4,899m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $182m (4%) to $4,965m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• telecommunications equipment, up $143m (19%)
• capital goods n.e.s., up $110m (15%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $17m to $8,303m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $385m (5%) to $8,672m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $173m (9%)
• other merchandise goods, up $112m
• primary industrial supplies n.e.s., up $81m (57%).

Partly offsetting these rises was parts for transport equipment, down $25m (2%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $36m (8%) to $504m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $124m (29%) to $551m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Mar 2016	Apr 2016	May 2016	May 2016	May 2016
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services debits			-6 328	-6 286	-6 296	10	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-70	-90	-50	-40	-44
	Transport		-1 332	-1 299	-1 317	18	1
		Passenger(c)	-495	-470	-500	30	6
		Freight	-769	-762	-750	-12	-2
		Other(b)	-60	-59	-59	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-8	-8	-8	-	-
	Travel		-2 804	-2 743	-2 762	19	1
	Other services		-2 121	-2 154	-2 167	13	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related service debits(f)		-3 299	-3 213	-3 262	49	2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits fell $21m to $6,241m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $10m to $6,296m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $19m (1%)
• transport, up $18m (1%)
• other services, up $13m (1%).

Partly offsetting these rises was maintenance and repair services n.i.e., down $40m (44%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $49m (2%) to $3,262m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 22% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in
		Dec 2015	Jan 2016	Feb 2016	Mar 2016	Apr 2016	May 2016
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	5	-18	16	2	-7	10
	Unit value	-12	9	9	13	4	9
Fines
	Quantity	4	-14	7	9	-2	3
	Unit value	-13	2	7	12	3	5
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-5	4	-17	11	4	18
	Unit value	-4	3	-2	p-1	p-3	p6
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-1	-1	-26	53	-14	-4
	Unit value	-3	3	-2	p-5	p-1	p6
Thermal
	Quantity	10	-10	-3	4	-6	2
	Unit value	-3	-1	-	-7	-2	8
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	10	-2	3	12	-8	-12
	Unit value	-6	-2	-5	-9	-12	-1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to DIBP. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to DIBP. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to DIBP and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between April and May 2016 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, up $209m (20%), with quantities up 10% and unit values up 9%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $125m (16%), with quantities up 6% and unit values up 9%
• Japan rose $36m (31%), with quantities up 23% and unit values up 6%
• Taiwan rose $30m (52%), with quantities up 33% and unit values up 15%.

Iron ore fines, up $262m (8%), with quantities up 3% and unit values up 5%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $166m (6%), with unit values up 6%
• Japan rose $69m (43%), with quantities up 35% and unit values up 5%
• the Republic of Korea rose $24m (14%), with quantities up 7% and unit values up 7%.

Hard coking coal, up $238m (24%), with quantities up 18% and unit values up 6%. Exports to:

• India rose $50m (18%), with quantities up 10% and unit values up 7%
• the Republic of Korea rose $48m, with quantities up 86% and unit values up 9%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $43m (21%), with quantities up 17% and unit values up 3%.

Semi-soft coal, up $12m (2%), with quantities down 4% and unit values up 6%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $32m (40%), with quantities up 29% and unit values up 9%
• the Republic of Korea fell $10m (10%), with quantities down 13% and unit values up 2%.

Thermal coal, up $103m (10%), with quantities up 2% and unit values up 8%. Exports to:

• Japan rose $72m (17%), with quantities up 10% and unit values up 6%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $41m (32%), with quantities up 28% and unit values up 3%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), down $162m (14%), with quantities down 12% and unit values down 1%.


COUNTRY BREAKDOWN

The following charts show Australia's major trading partners for the calendar year 2015. The charts include both trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis). The first chart shows the countries with the largest two-way trade, i.e., combined trade in both exports and imports of goods and services. The second chart shows total exports and total imports for each of these countries.

Combining trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis) provides a good approximation of total trade. Some components will be excluded (e.g. merchanting credits and goods procured in ports by carriers debits) while the manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others component will be double counted. These components are unlikely to impact on the broader analysis.

Exports data in goods with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are now being excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14a. In 2015, these restrictions represented 2.39% of the total exports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

Imports data in goods with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14b. In 2015, these restrictions represented 2.60% of the total imports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

For further details about these restrictions see Explanatory Notes paragraphs 26 to 28.