ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,108m in March 2009, an increase of $193m on a revised surplus in February 2009.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,498m in March 2009, an increase of $746m on a revised surplus in February 2009.

The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to March 2009 was a surplus of $5,015m, an increase of $1,034m on the surplus of $3,981m for the three months to December 2008. However, if the seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the March quarter 2009 surplus was $5,050m, an increase of $879m on the revised December quarter 2008 surplus of $4,171m.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $380m (2%) between February 2009 and March 2009 to $24,139m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $16m to $24,647m. Rural goods rose $257m (10%) while other goods fell $139m (6%) and non-rural goods fell $126m (1%). Services credits rose $25m (1%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $53m (2%) to $2,697m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $257m (10%) to $2,844m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $249m (41%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $467m (19%) to $2,985m.

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $603m (4%) to $14,589m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $126m (1%) to $14,842m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, down $210m (5%)
• other mineral fuels, down $98m (6%).

Partly offsetting these decreases were:

• other non-rural, up $115m (13%)
• transport equipment, up $64m (18%).

In original terms, the largest increase was in metal ores and minerals, up $354m (8%) with non-agglomerated iron ore, up $259m (9%), with volumes up 19% and prices down 8%. Coal, coke and briquettes rose $212m (5%) with volumes of high rank coal up 21%, volumes of semi-soft coking coal up 67% and volumes of non-metallurgical coal up 2%.

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $1,158m (8%) to $14,826m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, exports of other goods rose $145m (7%) to $2,215m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, other goods fell $139m (6%) to $2,327m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-monetary gold, down $108m (5%).

In original terms, exports of other goods fell $132m (5%) to $2,327m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $26m (1%) to $4,638m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $25m (1%) to $4,635m.

The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were travel services, up $32m (1%) and other services up $5m, while transportation services fell $13m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $24m (1%) to $2,973m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $573m (3%) between February 2009 and March 2009 to $22,031m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $730m (3%) to $22,149m. Other goods fell $640m (33%), capital goods fell $563m (12%) and intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $207m (3%), while consumption goods rose $661m (15%). Services debits rose $19m.

Preliminary analysis shows that, in seasonally adjusted terms, goods imports volumes decreased about 8.7% during the March quarter 2009 and the implicit price deflator fell 2.2%. In original terms, the Chain Laspeyres price index fell about 2.9% while the implicit price deflator fell 1.7%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the March quarter 2009 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $77m (2%) to $4,953m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $661m (15%) to $5,146m.

All components contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates with:

• consumption goods n.e.s., up $206m (13%)
• textiles, clothing and footwear, up $134m (21%)
• non-industrial transport equipment, up $104m (13%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $897m (22%) to $4,944m.

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $73m (2%) to $4,097m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $563m (12%) to $4,223m.

The component contributing the most to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was capital goods n.e.s. (which includes civil aircraft and confidential commodities), down $732m (45%).

Partly offsetting this fall was the machinery and industrial equipment component, up $202m (13%).

In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $195m (5%) to $4,349m.

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $438m (6%) to $7,006m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $207m (3%) to $7,006m.

The main components contributing to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, down $188m (10%)
• iron and steel, down $127m (28%).

Partly offsetting these decreases was the other parts for capital goods component, up $76m (7%).

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $329m (5%) to $7,056m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, imports of other goods rose $34m (2%) to $1,525m.

In both original and seasonally adjusted terms, other goods debits fell $640m (33%) to $1,305m.

The main component contributing to this decrease was non-monetary gold, down $806m (46%) while goods for processing increased $165m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits fell $21m to $4,449m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $19m to $4,469m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was other services, up $15m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $3m to $2,062m.