ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS
BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES
In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,946m in June 2015, an increase of $287m (11%) on the deficit in May 2015.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,933m in June 2015, an increase of $256m (10%) on the deficit in May 2015.
The sum of seasonally adjusted balance for the three months to June 2015 was a deficit of $9,766m, an increase of $5,191m (113%) on the deficit of $4,575m for the three months to March 2015. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary June quarter 2015 deficit was $9,902m, an increase of $5,278m (114%) on the March quarter 2015 deficit of $4,624m.
Revised quarterly estimates will be included in Balance of Payments - Goods and Services, Preliminary Quarterly Estimates (cat. no. 5302.0.55.004) and Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).
GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend |
|
 | | | | | | | Change in: |
| | | | Apr 2015 | May 2015 | Jun 2015 | Jun 2015 | Jun 2015 |
| | | | $m | $m | $m | $m | % |
Seasonally Adjusted |
|
| BALANCE on goods and services | -4 156 | -2 677 | -2 933 | -256 | -10 |
| CREDITS | | | | | |
| Total goods and services | 25 259 | 25 518 | 26 348 | 830 | 3 |
| | Total goods | 19 925 | 20 195 | 20 993 | 798 | 4 |
| | | Rural goods(b) | 3 725 | 3 824 | 3 801 | -23 | -1 |
| | | Non-rural goods(b) | 15 069 | 15 526 | 16 116 | 590 | 4 |
| | | Net exports of goods under merchanting(c) | 32 | 32 | 32 | - | - |
| | | Non-monetary gold(c) | 1 099 | 813 | 1 044 | 231 | 28 |
| | Total services | 5 334 | 5 323 | 5 355 | 32 | 1 |
| DEBITS | | | | | |
| Total goods and services | -29 415 | -28 195 | -29 281 | 1 086 | 4 |
| | Total goods | -23 497 | -22 311 | -23 287 | 976 | 4 |
| | | Consumption goods | -7 546 | -7 562 | -7 642 | 80 | 1 |
| | | Capital goods | -6 063 | -4 936 | -4 894 | -42 | -1 |
| | | Intermediate and other merchandise goods | -9 604 | -9 439 | -10 396 | 957 | 10 |
| | | Non-monetary gold(c) | -285 | -374 | -355 | -19 | -5 |
| | Total services | -5 918 | -5 884 | -5 993 | 109 | 2 |
Trend(d) |
|
| BALANCE on goods and services | -2 332 | -2 659 | -2 946 | -287 | -11 |
| CREDITS | | | | | |
| Total goods and services | 26 236 | 25 967 | 25 753 | -214 | -1 |
| | Total goods | 20 908 | 20 625 | 20 402 | -223 | -1 |
| | | Rural goods(b) | 3 801 | 3 823 | 3 827 | 4 | - |
| | | Non-rural goods(b) | 15 919 | 15 688 | 15 555 | -133 | -1 |
| | | Net exports of goods under merchanting | 33 | 32 | 31 | -1 | -3 |
| | | Non-monetary gold | 1 155 | 1 082 | 989 | -93 | -9 |
| | Total services | 5 328 | 5 342 | 5 351 | 9 | - |
| DEBITS | | | | | |
| Total goods and services | -28 568 | -28 626 | -28 699 | 73 | - |
| | Total goods | -22 618 | -22 671 | -22 741 | 70 | - |
| | | Consumption goods | -7 488 | -7 557 | -7 613 | 56 | 1 |
| | | Capital goods | -5 184 | -5 011 | -4 858 | -153 | -3 |
| | | Intermediate and other merchandise goods | -9 601 | -9 750 | -9 912 | 162 | 2 |
| | | Non-monetary gold | -345 | -354 | -358 | 4 | 1 |
| | Total services | -5 950 | -5 955 | -5 957 | 2 | - |
|
| - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
| (a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes. |
| (b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in non-rural goods. |
| (c) This component is not seasonally adjusted. |
| (d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes. |
EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES
Between May and June 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $214m (1%) to $25,753m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $830m (3%) to $26,348m. Non-rural goods rose $590m (4%) and non-monetary gold rose $231m (28%). Rural goods fell $23m (1%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $32m. Services credits rose $32m (1%).
Exports of goods
GOODS CREDITS
GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted |
|
| | | | | | | Change in: |
| | | | Apr 2015 | May 2015 | Jun 2015 | Jun 2015 | Jun 2015 |
| | | | $m | $m | $m | $m | % |
|
| Total goods credits | 19 925 | 20 195 | 20 993 | 798 | 4 |
| General merchandise | 18 794 | 19 350 | 19 917 | 567 | 3 |
| | Rural goods | 3 725 | 3 824 | 3 801 | -23 | -1 |
| | | Meat and meat preparations | 1 120 | 1 147 | 1 148 | 1 | - |
| | | Cereal grains and cereal preparations | 839 | 805 | 778 | -27 | -3 |
| | | Wool and sheepskins | 267 | 334 | 344 | 10 | 3 |
| | | Other rural(a) | 1 498 | 1 538 | 1 531 | -7 | - |
| | Non-rural goods | 15 069 | 15 526 | 16 116 | 590 | 4 |
| | | Metal ores and minerals | 5 528 | 5 921 | 6 351 | 430 | 7 |
| | | Coal, coke and briquettes(b) | 2 904 | 3 167 | 3 270 | 103 | 3 |
| | | Other mineral fuels(c) | 1 877 | 1 641 | 1 706 | 65 | 4 |
| | | Metals (excl. non-monetary gold) | 771 | 888 | 838 | -50 | -6 |
| | | Machinery | 865 | 816 | 893 | 77 | 9 |
| | | Transport equipment | 505 | 499 | 515 | 16 | 3 |
| | | Other manufactures | 1 434 | 1 455 | 1 465 | 10 | 1 |
| | | Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a) | 1 055 | 1 009 | 951 | -58 | -6 |
| | | Goods procured in ports by carriers(c) | 130 | 129 | 127 | -2 | -2 |
| Net exports of goods under merchanting(d) | 32 | 32 | 32 | - | - |
| Non-monetary gold(d) | 1 099 | 813 | 1 044 | 231 | 28 |
|
| - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
| (a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in other non-rural. |
| (b) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series. |
| (c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern. |
| (d) This component is not seasonally adjusted. |
RURAL GOODS
In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $4m to $3,827m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $23m (1%) to $3,801m.
The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $27m (3%).
NON-RURAL GOODS
In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $133m (1%) to $15,555m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $590m (4%) to $16,116m.
The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- metal ores and minerals, up $430m (7%). In original terms, on an international merchandise trade basis, this was primarily driven by exports of iron ore fines (AHECC 26011120) to China (excluding SARs and Taiwan), up $378m (16%), a result of restocking, following a decrease of Chinese port inventories.
- coal, coke and briquettes, up $103m (3%)
- machinery, up $77m (9%).
For price and volume details, see the
Selected commodities section.
NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING
In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (3%) to $31m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $32m.
NON-MONETARY GOLD
In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $93m (9%) to $989m.
In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $231m (28%) to $1,044m.
Exports of services
SERVICES CREDITS
SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted |
|
| | | | | | Change in: |
| | | Apr 2015 | May 2015 | Jun 2015 | Jun 2015 | Jun 2015 |
| | | $m | $m | $m | $m | % |
Seasonally Adjusted |
|
| Total services credits | 5 334 | 5 323 | 5 355 | 32 | 1 |
| Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a) | 5 | 4 | 3 | -1 | -25 |
| Transport | 582 | 575 | 574 | -1 | - |
| | Passenger(b) | 217 | 214 | 215 | 1 | - |
| | Freight(c) | 18 | 18 | 18 | - | - |
| | Other | 233 | 230 | 232 | 2 | 1 |
| | Postal and courier services(d) | 114 | 112 | 110 | -2 | -2 |
| Travel | 3 157 | 3 148 | 3 172 | 24 | 1 |
| Other services | 1 590 | 1 596 | 1 605 | 9 | 1 |
| Memorandum item | | | | | |
| Tourism related service credits(e) | 3 374 | 3 363 | 3 387 | 24 | 1 |
|
| - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
| (a) This component is not seasonally adjusted. |
| (b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport. |
| (c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern. |
| (d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport. |
| (e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes. |
|
In trend terms, service credits rose $9m to $5,351m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $32m (1%) to $5,355m.
The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- travel, up $24m (1%)
- other services, up $9m (1%).
In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service credits rose $24m (1%) to $3,387m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 20% of total goods and services exported.
IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES
Between May and June 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $73m to $28,699m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $1,086m (4%) to $29,281m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $957m (10%) and consumption goods rose $80m (1%). Capital goods fell $42m (1%) and non-monetary gold fell $19m (5%). Services debits rose $109m (2%).
Imports of goods
GOODS DEBITS
GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted |
|
| | | | | | | Change in: |
| | | | Apr 2015 | May 2015 | Jun 2015 | Jun 2015 | Jun 2015 |
| | | | $m | $m | $m | $m | % |
|
| Total goods debits | -23 497 | -22 311 | -23 287 | 976 | 4 |
| General merchandise | -23 212 | -21 937 | -22 932 | 995 | 5 |
| | Consumption goods | -7 546 | -7 562 | -7 642 | 80 | 1 |
| | | Food and beverages, mainly for consumption | -1 093 | -1 157 | -1 141 | -16 | -1 |
| | | Household electrical items | -452 | -459 | -444 | -15 | -3 |
| | | Non-industrial transport equipment | -1 846 | -1 858 | -1 854 | -4 | - |
| | | Textiles, clothing and footwear | -1 256 | -1 274 | -1 307 | 33 | 3 |
| | | Toys, books and leisure goods | -481 | -468 | -481 | 13 | 3 |
| | | Consumption goods n.e.s. | -2 416 | -2 345 | -2 414 | 69 | 3 |
| | Capital goods | -6 063 | -4 936 | -4 894 | -42 | -1 |
| | | Machinery and industrial equipment | -3 003 | -1 638 | -1 780 | 142 | 9 |
| | | ADP equipment | -867 | -828 | -821 | -7 | -1 |
| | | Telecommunications equipment | -931 | -792 | -887 | 95 | 12 |
| | | Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c) | -301 | -369 | -548 | 179 | 49 |
| | | Industrial transport equipment n.e.s. | -790 | -768 | -626 | -142 | -18 |
| | | Capital goods n.e.s. | -171 | -542 | -232 | -310 | -57 |
| | Intermediate and other merchandise goods | -9 604 | -9 439 | -10 396 | 957 | 10 |
| | | Food and beverages, mainly for industry | -148 | -150 | -151 | 1 | 1 |
| | | Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d) | -147 | -170 | -172 | 2 | 1 |
| | | Fuels and lubricants(c) | -2 680 | -2 478 | -3 077 | 599 | 24 |
| | | Parts for transport equipment | -919 | -920 | -932 | 12 | 1 |
| | | Parts for ADP equipment | -60 | -54 | -56 | 2 | 4 |
| | | Other parts for capital goods | -1 311 | -1 400 | -1 326 | -74 | -5 |
| | | Organic and inorganic chemicals | -372 | -352 | -378 | 26 | 7 |
| | | Paper and paperboard | -204 | -204 | -214 | 10 | 5 |
| | | Textile yarn and fabrics | -119 | -119 | -124 | 5 | 4 |
| | | Iron and steel | -501 | -519 | -531 | 12 | 2 |
| | | Plastics | -325 | -321 | -333 | 12 | 4 |
| | | Processed industrial supplies n.e.s. | -2 684 | -2 613 | -2 970 | 357 | 14 |
| | | Other merchandise goods(b)(d)(e) | -27 | -32 | -25 | -7 | -22 |
| | | Goods procured in ports by carriers(c) | -107 | -107 | -107 | - | - |
| Non-monetary gold(c) | -285 | -374 | -355 | -19 | -5 |
|
| - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
| (a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes. |
| (b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in other merchandise goods. |
| (c) This component is not seasonally adjusted. |
| (d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern. |
| (e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted. |
CONSUMPTION GOODS
In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $56m (1%) to $7,613m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $80m (1%) to $7,642m.
The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was consumption goods n.e.s., up $69m (3%).
CAPITAL GOODS
In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $153m (3%) to $4,858m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $42m (1%) to $4,894m.
The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- capital goods n.e.s., down $310m (57%)
- industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $142m (18%).
Partly offsetting these falls were:
- civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $179m (49%)
- machinery and industrial equipment, up $142m (9%).
INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS
In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $162m (2%) to $9,912m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $957m (10%) to $10,396m.
The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- fuels and lubricants, up $599m (24%)
- processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $357m (14%).
NON-MONETARY GOLD
In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $4m (1%) to $358m.
In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $19m (5%) to $355m.
Imports of services
SERVICES DEBITS
SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted |
|
| | | | | | Change in: |
| | | Apr 2015 | May 2015 | Jun 2015 | Jun 2015 | Jun 2015 |
| | | $m | $m | $m | $m | % |
Seasonally Adjusted |
|
| Total services debits | -5 918 | -5 884 | -5 993 | 109 | 2 |
| Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b) | -11 | -30 | -46 | 16 | 53 |
| Transport | -1 444 | -1 420 | -1 481 | 61 | 4 |
| | Passenger(c) | -508 | -499 | -514 | 15 | 3 |
| | Freight | -864 | -849 | -896 | 47 | 6 |
| | Other(b) | -64 | -64 | -64 | - | - |
| | Postal and courier services(d)(e) | -8 | -7 | -7 | - | - |
| Travel | -2 395 | -2 358 | -2 394 | 36 | 2 |
| Other services(e) | -2 068 | -2 076 | -2 073 | -3 | - |
| Memorandum item | | | | | |
| Tourism related service debits(f) | -2 903 | -2 857 | -2 908 | 51 | 2 |
|
| - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
| (a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes. |
| (b) This component is not seasonally adjusted. |
| (c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport. |
| (d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport. |
| (e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern. |
| (f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes. |
In trend terms, imports of services debits rose $2m to $5,957m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of services debits rose $109m (2%) to $5,993m.
The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- transport, up $61m (4%), driven by freight, up $47m (6%)
- travel, up $36m (2%).
In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of tourism related services debits rose $51m (2%) to $2,908m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 20% of total goods and services imported.
Selected commodities
Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: International merchandise trade basis(a) - Original terms |
|
| | Change in: |
| | Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | Mar 2015 | Apr 2015 | May 2015 | Jun 2015 |
| | % | % | % | % | % | % |
Iron ore |
|
| Lump | | | | | | |
| Quantity | -12 | -7 | 17 | -6 | 11 | 2 |
| Unit value | -3 | 4 | -11 | -15 | 8 | 5 |
| Fines | | | | | | |
| Quantity | -9 | -1 | 2 | -3 | 5 | 9 |
| Unit value | - | -2 | -9 | -10 | 5 | 9 |
Coal |
|
| Hard coking | | | | | | |
| Quantity | -2 | -13 | 32 | -21 | 15 | 13 |
| Unit value | 4 | 1 | - | -6 | p6 | p-4 |
| Semi-soft | | | | | | |
| Quantity | -17 | -21 | 24 | -18 | 20 | 2 |
| Unit value | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | p-2 | p-3 |
| Thermal | | | | | | |
| Quantity | -12 | -8 | 9 | -14 | 8 | 13 |
| Unit value | -3 | 6 | 1 | -6 | -2 | 1 |
|
| - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
| p preliminary figure or series subject to revision |
| (a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series. |
International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the
Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to DIBP. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to DIBP. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.
Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to DIBP and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.
On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between May and June 2015 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:
Iron ore lump, up $80m (8%), with quantities up 2% and unit values up 5%. Exports to Japan rose $78m (49%), with quantities up 38% and unit values up 8%.
Iron ore fines, up $525m (18%), with quantities up 9% and unit values up 9%. Exports to:
- China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $378m (16%), with quantities up 7% and unit values up 8%
- Japan rose $125m (65%), with quantities up 55% and unit values up 7%.
Hard coking coal, up $125m (9%), with quantities up 13% and unit values down 4%. Exports to:
- the Republic of Korea rose $88m (173%), with quantities up 181% and unit values down 3%
- China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $75m (20%), with quantities up 29% and unit values down 7%.
Partly offsetting these rises was exports to Japan, down $86m (31%), with quantities down 28% and unit values down 4%.
Semi-soft coal, down $6m (1%), with quantities up 2% and unit values down 3%. Exports to Japan fell $32m (17%), with quantities down 16% and unit values down 1%.
Partly offsetting this fall was exports to China (excluding SARs and Taiwan), up $23m (24%), with quantities up 32% and unit values down 6%.
Thermal coal, up $169m (14%), with quantities up 13% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:
- Japan rose $144m (28%), with quantities up 28%
- the Republic of Korea rose $42m (19%), with quantities up 17% and unit values up 2%.
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