ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $94m in January 2018, a decrease of $55m on the surplus in December 2017.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,055m in January 2018, a turnaround of $2,201m on the deficit in December 2017.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Nov 2017	Dec 2017	Jan 2018	Jan 2018	Jan 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				252	-1 146	1 055	2 201	(b)..
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			31 975	32 530	33 924	1 394	4
		Total goods		24 768	25 372	26 690	1 318	5
			Rural goods(c)	3 878	3 727	3 415	-312	-8
			Non-rural goods(c)	19 400	20 165	21 034	869	4
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(d)	53	52	43	-9	-17
			Non-monetary gold(d)	1 437	1 428	2 198	770	54
		Total services		7 207	7 158	7 235	77	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-31 722	-33 676	-32 869	-807	-2
		Total goods		-24 286	-26 215	-25 376	-839	-3
			Consumption goods	-8 526	-8 952	-8 366	-586	-7
			Capital goods	-5 660	-6 048	-5 958	-90	-1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 800	-10 710	-10 642	-68	-1
			Non-monetary gold(d)	-301	-505	-410	-95	-19
		Total services		-7 436	-7 462	-7 493	31	-
Trend(e)
BALANCE on goods and services				256	149	94	-55	-37
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			32 411	32 688	33 000	312	1
		Total goods		25 202	25 492	25 809	317	1
			Rural goods(c)	3 813	3 702	3 596	-106	-3
			Non-rural goods(c)	19 715	20 041	20 362	321	2
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	49	49	50	1	2
			Non-monetary gold	1 626	1 699	1 801	102	6
		Total services		7 209	7 197	7 192	-5	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-32 155	-32 539	-32 907	368	1
		Total goods		-24 702	-25 077	-25 436	359	1
			Consumption goods	-8 465	-8 552	-8 635	83	1
			Capital goods	-5 854	-5 846	-5 857	11	-
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 983	-10 279	-10 536	257	3
			Non-monetary gold	-399	-399	-409	10	3
		Total services		-7 453	-7 463	-7 470	7	-
.. not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) See paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(c) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(d) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(e) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between December 2017 and January 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $312m (1%) to $33,000m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $1,394m (4%) to $33,924m. Non-rural goods rose $869m (4%) and non-monetary gold rose $770m (54%). Rural goods fell $312m (8%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $9m (17%). Services credits rose $77m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Nov 2017	Dec 2017	Jan 2018	Jan 2018	Jan 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				24 768	25 372	26 690	1 318	5
	General merchandise			23 278	23 892	24 449	557	2
		Rural goods		3 878	3 727	3 415	-312	-8
			Meat and meat preparations	967	1 034	1 045	11	1
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	597	642	578	-64	-10
			Wool and sheepskins	383	379	331	-48	-13
			Other rural(a)	1 931	1 673	1 461	-212	-13
		Non-rural goods		19 400	20 165	21 034	869	4
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	7 114	7 465	7 509	44	1
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	4 534	4 892	4 893	1	-
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	2 831	3 094	3 381	287	9
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	992	854	990	136	16
			Machinery	845	865	893	28	3
			Transport equipment	339	276	484	208	75
			Other manufactures	1 689	1 691	1 795	104	6
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	900	873	933	60	7
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	157	154	155	1	1
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			53	52	43	-9	-17
	Non-monetary gold(e)			1 437	1 428	2 198	770	54
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $106m (3%) to $3,596m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $312m (8%) to $3,415m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other rural, down $212m (13%)
• cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $64m (10%)
• wool and sheepskins, down $48m (13%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $321m (2%) to $20,362m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $869m (4%) to $21,034m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other mineral fuels, up $287m (9%)
• transport equipment, up $208m (75%)
• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), up $136m (16%)
• other manufactures, up $104m (6%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (2%) to $50m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $9m (17%) to $43m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $102m (6%) to $1,801m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $770m (54%) to $2,198m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Nov 2017	Dec 2017	Jan 2018	Jan 2018	Jan 2018
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			7 207	7 158	7 235	77	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		6	7	6	-1	-14
	Transport		644	638	658	20	3
		Passenger(b)	254	247	260	13	5
		Freight(c)	23	23	25	2	9
		Other	232	232	234	2	1
		Postal and courier services(d)	134	136	139	3	2
	Travel		4 730	4 677	4 718	41	1
	Other services		1 827	1 836	1 853	17	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		4 984	4 924	4 978	54	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits fell $5m to $7,192m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $77m (1%) to $7,235m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $41m (1%)
• transport, up $20m (3%)
• other services, up $17m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $54m (1%) to $4,978m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 21% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between December 2017 and January 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $368m (1%) to $32,907m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $807m (2%) to $32,869m. Consumption goods fell $586m (7%), non-monetary gold fell $95m (19%), capital goods fell $90m (1%) and intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $68m (1%). Services debits rose $31m.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Nov 2017	Dec 2017	Jan 2018	Jan 2018	Jan 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-24 286	-26 215	-25 376	-839	-3
	General merchandise			-23 985	-25 710	-24 966	-744	-3
		Consumption goods		-8 526	-8 952	-8 366	-586	-7
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 244	-1 274	-1 231	-43	-3
			Household electrical items	-469	-546	-531	-15	-3
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-2 081	-2 129	-1 972	-157	-7
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 487	-1 606	-1 374	-232	-14
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-583	-554	-568	14	3
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 662	-2 843	-2 690	-153	-5
		Capital goods		-5 660	-6 048	-5 958	-90	-1
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 776	-1 966	-1 887	-79	-4
			ADP equipment	-841	-829	-823	-6	-1
			Telecommunications equipment	-1 154	-1 328	-1 059	-269	-20
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-282	-377	-548	171	45
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-852	-851	-906	55	6
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-755	-698	-735	37	5
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-9 800	-10 710	-10 642	-68	-1
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-151	-159	-139	-20	-13
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-231	-237	-277	40	17
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-2 576	-3 106	-3 072	-34	-1
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 032	-1 146	-1 070	-76	-7
			Parts for ADP equipment	-59	-61	-65	4	7
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 402	-1 475	-1 465	-10	-1
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-367	-453	-409	-44	-10
			Paper and paperboard	-190	-206	-196	-10	-5
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-123	-129	-120	-9	-7
			Iron and steel	-296	-325	-302	-23	-7
			Plastics	-361	-377	-376	-1	-
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 833	-2 901	-2 925	24	1
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-82	-39	-129	90	231
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-97	-96	-96	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-301	-505	-410	-95	-19
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $83m (1%) to $8,635m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $586m (7%) to $8,366m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• textiles, clothing and footwear, down $232m (14%)
• non-industrial transport equipment, down $157m (7%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., down $153m (5%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $11m to $5,857m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $90m (1%) to $5,958m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• telecommunications equipment, down $269m (20%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, down $79m (4%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $171m (45%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $55m (6%)
• capital goods n.e.s., up $37m (5%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $257m (3%) to $10,536m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $68m (1%) to $10,642m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• parts for transport equipment, down $76m (7%)
• organic and inorganic chemicals, down $44m (10%)
• fuels and lubricants, down $34m (1%)
• iron and steel, down $23m (7%)
• food and beverages, mainly for industry, down $20m (13%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• other merchandise goods, up $90m
• primary industrial supplies n.e.s., up $40m (17%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $10m (3%) to $409m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $95m (19%) to $410m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Nov 2017	Dec 2017	Jan 2018	Jan 2018	Jan 2018
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-7 436	-7 462	-7 493	31	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-51	-47	-34	-13	-28
	Transport		-1 485	-1 541	-1 508	-33	-2
		Passenger(c)	-585	-569	-593	24	4
		Freight	-774	-844	-811	-33	-4
		Other(b)	-118	-120	-95	-25	-21
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-9	-9	-9	-	-
	Travel		-3 742	-3 698	-3 767	69	2
	Other services		-2 158	-2 176	-2 185	9	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-4 327	-4 267	-4 359	92	2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $7m to $7,470m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $31m to $7,493m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $69m (2%).

Partly offsetting this rise was transport, down $33m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $92m (2%) to $4,359m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 23% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in
		Aug 2017	Sep 2017	Oct 2017	Nov 2017	Dec 2017	Jan 2018
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	-3	9	-6	1	12	-17
	Unit value	6	7	-9	-6	-	-1
Fines
	Quantity	7	1	-2	-3	15	-16
	Unit value	10	-7	-13	3	6	2
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	2	2	-19	3	11	1
	Unit value	-	14	4	p-4	p-8	p-4
Semi-soft
	Quantity	34	-16	2	-13	35	-16
	Unit value	-4	4	2	-	p3	p-5
Thermal
	Quantity	-14	4	-2	-4	13	-10
	Unit value	5	2	5	4	-1	p-4
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	-3	-20	18	5	2	9
	Unit value	-	-2	-1	4	6	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Home Affairs and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between December 2017 and January 2018 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, down $271m (17%), with quantities down 17% and unit values down 1%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $152m (13%), with quantities down 16% and unit values up 3%
• Japan fell $75m (27%), with quantities down 18% and unit values down 11%
• Taiwan fell $40m (59%), with quantities down 61% and unit values up 6%.

Iron ore fines, down $561m (14%), with quantities down 16% and unit values up 2%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $385m (12%), with quantities down 14% and unit values up 3%
• the Republic of Korea fell $133m (50%), with quantities down 49% and unit values down 2%
• Japan fell $28m (10%), with quantities down 9% and unit values down 2%.

Hard coking coal, down $51m (3%), with quantities up 1% and unit values down 4%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $185m (35%), with quantities down 28% and unit values down 10%
• India fell $88m (15%), with quantities down 14% and unit values down 1%
• the Republic of Korea rose $63m (63%), with quantities up 67% and unit values down 3%
• Japan rose $59m (17%), with quantities up 17%.

Semi-soft coal, down $203m (20%), with quantities down 16% and unit values down 5%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $135m (61%), with quantities down 57% and unit values down 11%
• Netherlands fell $47m, with no exports in January 2018
• Japan fell $46m (15%), with quantities down 9% and unit values down 6%.

Thermal coal, down $268m (13%), with quantities down 10% and unit values down 4%. Exports to:

• Taiwan fell $106m (38%), with quantities down 38%
• Japan fell $85m (9%), with quantities down 5% and unit values down 5%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwain) fell $56m (15%), with quantities down 12% and unit values down 3%
• Chile fell $26m, with no exports in January 2018.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $238m (10%), with quantities up 9%.