ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in August 2008 was a surplus of $563m, an increase of $318m on the revised surplus in July 2008.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in August 2008 was a surplus of $1,364m, a turnaround of $2,061m on the revised deficit in July 2008.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $536m (2%) between July and August to $24,095m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $1,486m (6%) to $24,610m. Non-rural goods rose $1,536m (11%) and rural goods rose $79m (4%), while other goods fell $147m (9%). Services credits rose $18m.


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $12m (1%) to $2,279m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, export of rural goods rose $79m (4%) to $2,287m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other rural, up $37m (4%)
• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $28m (6%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $155m (7%) to $2,303m.

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $444m (3%) to $15,667m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $1,536m (11%) to $16,115m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, up $943m (26%)
• metal ores and minerals, up $215m (5%)
• other non-rural, up $200m (25%)
• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), up $141m (12%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the other mineral fuels component, down $98m (5%).

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $1,735m (12%) to $16,580m. Metallurgical coal increased by $979m with volumes up 15% and prices up 22%.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, exports of other goods rose $59m (4%) to $1,405m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of other goods fell $147m (9%) to $1,473m with non-monetary gold, down $154m (11%).

In original terms, exports of other goods fell $135m (8%) to $1,483m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $46m (1%) to $4,744m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $18m to $4,735m.

Components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other services, up $11m (1%)
• travel services, up $11m.

Partly offsetting these increases was the transportation services component, down $4m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $6m to $2,985m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $218m (1%) between July and August to $23,532m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $575m (2%) to $23,246m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $623m (7%), other goods fell $125m (11%) and consumption goods fell $52m (1%), while capital goods rose $238m (6%). Services debits fell $10m.


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $6m to $5,112m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $52m (1%) to $5,054m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was household electrical items, down $113m (23%).

Partly offsetting this were:

• consumption goods n.e.s., up $52m (3%)
• non-industrial transport equipment, up $45m (3%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods fell $215m (4%) to $5,071m.

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $37m (1%) to $4,119m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $238m (6%) to $4,261m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was civil aircraft, up $202m (112%).

In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $160m (4%) to $4,213m.

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $118m (1%) to $8,742m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $623m (7%) to $8,437m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, down $887m (25%).

In original terms, crude petroleum oils decreased $299m (15%) with volumes down 14% and prices down 1%. Refined petroleum oils decreased $544m (37%) with volumes down 34% and prices down 4%. Contributing to the decrease in refined petroleum oils were:

• diesel decreased $283m
• gasoline decreased $117m
• fuel oils decreased $79m
• jet fuel decreased $77m.

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $731m (8%) to $8,485m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, imports of other goods rose $39m (4%) to $1,039m.

In both original terms and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of other goods debits fell $125m (11%) to $1,011m. The main component contributing to the fall was goods for processing, down $158m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $30m (1%) to $4,520m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $10m to $4,485m.

Components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transportation services, down $15m (1%)
• travel services, down $12m (1%).

Partly offsetting these decreases was the other services component, up $16m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $26m (1%) to $2,152m.