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5302.0 - Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia, Sep 2007  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/11/2007   
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CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of the current account have been revised as a result of the annual seasonal re-analysis, which reviews the seasonal and trading day factors in more detail than possible in the monthly processing cycle. The main changes were:

  • the coal, coke and briquettes credits component has been identified as no longer being seasonal in nature
  • the trend break applying to the metal ores and minerals credits component for June quarter 2006 has been revised from $450m to $1500m
  • the non-monetary gold credits component, which was previously seasonally adjusted prior to December 1995, has been identified as non seasonal for all time periods.

In addition, as advised in the previous issue, ARIMA modelling has been introduced with the annual seasonal re-analysis. For more information on the use of ARIMA modelling see Feature article: Use of ARIMA modelling to reduce revisions, October 2004 issue of Australian Economic Indicators (cat. no. 1350.0)



CHAIN VOLUME ESTIMATES

A new base year, 2005-06, has been introduced into the chain volume estimates in respect of 2006-07 and 2007-08 which has resulted in revision to quarterly growth rates in 2006-07. In addition, the chain volume estimates have been re-referenced to 2005-06, thereby preserving additivity in the quarters after that reference year. Re-referencing affects levels of, but not the movements in chain volume estimates.



CURRENT AND CAPITAL TRANSFERS

As part of an ongoing program to review the quality of the balance of payments, the methodology for compiling withholding taxes and aid payments has been improved.


The revised withholding taxes methodology uses a correlation with income flows between residents and non-residents to estimate taxes paid and received. The aid payments series has been revised to replace estimates with better source data.

The improvements have resulted in revisions to current transfers and capital transfers from 2001-02.



SELECTED INTERNATIONAL ACCOUNTS RATIOS - TABLE 35

Ratios of current account and international investment measures to both annual and annualised (i.e. four quarter moving average ending on the reference quarter) GDP are normally presented in Table 35. The updated annual GDP benchmarks released on 2 November 2007 in the Australian System of National Accounts, 2006-07 (cat. no. 5204.0) have been used in the annual ratios presented in this issue. These benchmarks will be incorporated into the quarterly national accounts with the September quarter 2007 issue of Australian National Accounts: National Income and Expenditure (cat. no. 5206.0) to be released on 5 December 2007. The introduction of these benchmarks will change the level of the quarterly GDP used in the annualised ratios. Therefore, annualised ratios using the currently available quarterly GDP would be inconsistent with the annual ratios and have been suppressed in this issue. Table 35 in the Time Series data released in conjunction with this publication will be updated with the release of the quarterly national accounts.


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