5302.0 - Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia, Jun 2007  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/08/2007   
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CHANGES IN THIS AND FUTURE ISSUES


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

As announced in the March issue, the format of the datacube containing seasonal adjustment factors has changed to align with the current standard of excel spreadsheets. The new format is available as Table 96.



CHANGES TO FUTURE ISSUES

Chain volume estimates


A new reference year for chain volume measures is typically updated annually every June quarter. From 2007 onwards the updating of the reference year will be completed in the September quarter each year. In September quarter 2007 the new reference year will be 2005-06 for chain volume estimates. This will result in revisions to growth rates in quarters following 2005-06 but will preserve additivity in those quarters. For earlier periods re-referencing affects the levels of, but not the movements in, chain volume estimates.


Seasonally adjusted and Trend estimates


The seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of the current account will be revised in the September quarter 2007 issue as a result of the annual seasonal reanalysis. This reanalysis reviews the seasonal factors in more detail than is possible in a quarterly cycle and assesses the appropriateness of any prior corrections which have previously been applied.


Recently, the ABS has started to implement improved methods of producing seasonally adjusted estimates, focused on the application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling techniques. The revision properties of the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates can be improved by the use of ARIMA modelling. ARIMA modelling relies on the characteristics of the series being analysed to project future period data. The projected values are temporary, intermediate values, that are only used internally to improve the estimation of the seasonal factors. The projected data do not affect the original estimates and are discarded at the end of the seasonal adjustment process.


The seasonal adjustment of Balance of Payments estimates will use, from the 2007 annual seasonal reanalysis, concurrent seasonal adjustment with ARIMA modelling where applicable to reduce the level of revision to seasonally adjusted estimates. For more information on the details of ARIMA modelling see Feature article: Use of ARIMA modelling to reduce revisions, October 2004 issue of Australian Economic Indicators (cat. no. 1350.0).


Current and Capital Transfers


The methodology for compiling withholding taxes and aid payments are currently being reviewed. This revised methodology is expected to be implemented in the September quarter issue of this publication which will result in revisions to both the Current and Capital Transfers series.