WHAT IF...??? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS TREND REVISIONS

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:

1 The August 2018 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.0% higher than July 2018.
2 The August 2018 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.0% lower than July 2018.

The figure of 2.0% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 28 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT RETURNS TREND REVISIONS

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident returns are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident returns are presented:

1 The August 2018 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident returns is 1.9% higher than July 2018.
2 The August 2018 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident returns is 1.9% lower than July 2018.

The figure of 1.9% for resident returns represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident returns over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident return trend estimates, see paragraph 28 of the Explanatory Notes.