3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Nov 2017 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 19/01/2018   
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TECHNICAL NOTE - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the series. In most cases, the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.

The following graphs are provided to illustrate variations in the seasonally adjusted and trend series for selected countries. These graphs cover the period June 2007 to June 2017.


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graph for France shows steady growth from June 2007 with monthly fluctuations. However, in July 2008, the seasonally adjusted series increased significantly at the time World Youth Day was held in Sydney, which drew hundreds of thousands of participants from around the world. In April 2010, the seasonally adjusted series fell suddenly at the time of the volcanic eruptions in Iceland, which closed major airports in Europe for one week.

Sometimes there are abrupt and sustained changes in the underlying behaviour of short-term movement series, termed ‘trend breaks’. Given that these occasions can distort trend estimates, the ABS takes such breaks into account when smoothing seasonally adjusted series.

Analysis of short-term visitor arrivals from Pakistan shows the introduction of a break to the series in April 2016. This is necessitated by the sustained increase of visitor arrivals from Pakistan due to an increase in terrorist related activity and natural disasters during this period, including the Lahore suicide bombing and a mass flooding which left thousands displaced. There was also a large extreme identified in October 2008, which indicates a decrease in the number of visitor arrivals and was likely a result of the Islamabad Marriott Hotel bombing, as well as a major earthquake which again, displaced thousands of people.

The graph for the Philippines demonstrates an increase in short-term visitor arrivals in July 2008. This can be attributed to the aftermath of Typhoon Frank, as well as World Youth Day events in Sydney.


FRANCE, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: FRANCE, Short-term Visitor Arrivals

PAKISTAN, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: PAKISTAN, Short-term Visitor Arrivals

PHILIPPINES, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: PHILIPPINES, Short-term Visitor Arrivals


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT RETURNS

Selected destinations

The graph for Brazil shows a sudden increase in short-term resident returns in July 2014, coinciding with the FIFA World Cup. An increase was also identified in August 2016 which can be attributed to the Olympics held in Rio de Janeiro.

Analysis of the Japan short-term resident returns graph shows the introduction of a break to the series in April 2011. This is necessitated by the sustained decrease in travel there due to the Fukishima earthquake.

A major decrease in the number of short-term resident returns to Vanuatu is shown for April 2015. This was caused by a series of disruption of air travel to and from the island due to severe tropical cyclones, most notably Cyclone Pam in March 2015.


BRAZIL, Short-term Resident Returns
Graph: BRAZIL, Short-term Resident Returns

JAPAN, Short-term Resident Returns
Graph: JAPAN, Short-term Resident Returns

VANUATU, Short-term Resident Returns
Graph: VANUATU, Short-term Resident Returns