3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Apr 2004

TECHNICAL NOTE TREND REVISIONS

EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES

1 The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals and short-term resident departures, are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist readers of this publication in analysing short-term movement trends, the approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals and resident departures are presented below.

Visitor arrivals

The May seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 3.2% higher than April.

The May seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 3.2% lower than April.

Graph - short term visitor arrivals, trend revisions

Resident departures

The May seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% higher than April.

The May seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than April.

Graph - short term resident departures, trend revisions

2 The percentage changes of 3.2 for visitor arrivals and 3.0 for resident departures were chosen because they represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals and resident departures over the last ten years, respectively.

3 Under concurrent seasonal adjustment, the most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent months become available. The trend revision is a combined result of the revision of the seasonally adjusted estimates and the revision derived from the use of asymmetric moving averages as future data become available. ABS research shows that about 75% of the total revision to the trend estimate at the current end of the time series is due to the use of different asymmetric moving averages when the original estimate for the next time period becomes available. To assess the reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the "what-if" chart presents trend estimates under two different scenarios for the next time period. The chart shows only the impact due to the changes of the asymmetric moving averages and does not include the unknown impact of revision to seasonal factor estimates that would arise when the original estimate for the next time period becomes available.

This page last updated 20 June 2006

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Explanatory Notes Glossary Abbreviations Appendix Trend Revisions (Technical Note) Standard Errors (Technical Note) Data Source	TECHNICAL NOTE TREND REVISIONS EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES 1 The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals and short-term resident departures, are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist readers of this publication in analysing short-term movement trends, the approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals and resident departures are presented below. Visitor arrivals 1 The May seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 3.2% higher than April. 2 The May seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 3.2% lower than April. Resident departures 1 The May seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% higher than April. 2 The May seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than April. 2 The percentage changes of 3.2 for visitor arrivals and 3.0 for resident departures were chosen because they represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals and resident departures over the last ten years, respectively. 3 Under concurrent seasonal adjustment, the most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent months become available. The trend revision is a combined result of the revision of the seasonally adjusted estimates and the revision derived from the use of asymmetric moving averages as future data become available. ABS research shows that about 75% of the total revision to the trend estimate at the current end of the time series is due to the use of different asymmetric moving averages when the original estimate for the next time period becomes available. To assess the reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the "what-if" chart presents trend estimates under two different scenarios for the next time period. The chart shows only the impact due to the changes of the asymmetric moving averages and does not include the unknown impact of revision to seasonal factor estimates that would arise when the original estimate for the next time period becomes available. Document Selection These documents will be presented in a new window. This page last updated 20 June 2006

Australian Bureau of StatisticsCelebrating the International Year of Statistics 2013

Australian Bureau of Statistics
Celebrating the International Year of Statistics 2013