MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during September 2015 (624,600 movements) increased 0.7% when compared with August 2015. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 7.8% higher than in September 2014.

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during September 2015. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for September 2014 and September 2015 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for China (19.7%), followed by India (14.6%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for South Korea (0.6%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - September 2015
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Aug '15 to Sep '15	Sep '14 to Sep '15
Country of Residence(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	110.7	110.0	121.0	0.1	7.3
China	89.6	94.6	76.6	2.3	19.7
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	56.7	56.9	43.3	-0.3	5.0
United States of America	49.7	50.8	39.5	0.5	6.5
Malaysia	31.0	33.8	32.8	2.0	10.2
Singapore	33.9	34.7	32.2	1.4	9.2
Japan	28.6	29.1	29.0	1.4	5.9
India	19.5	19.7	16.0	1.2	14.6
Korea, South	17.2	17.4	15.5	-0.7	-0.6
Hong Kong	19.1	18.9	15.2	-0.1	14.1
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:

1 The October 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% higher than September 2015.
2 The October 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than September 2015.

The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during September 2015 (780,300 movements) changed little when compared with August 2015 (780,400 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 3.0% higher than in September 2014.

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in September 2015. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for September 2014 and September 2015 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Japan (22.2%), followed by the United Kingdom (7.6%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Indonesia (3.0%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - September 2015
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Aug '15 to Sep '15	Sep '14 to Sep '15
Country of Stay(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
Indonesia	90.0	91.3	109.6	-0.5	-3.0
United States of America	84.2	82.1	107.8	0.3	3.8
New Zealand	105.3	105.8	105.9	-0.1	5.3
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	49.7	50.2	70.1	1.3	7.6
Thailand	47.7	46.6	50.8	0.4	5.9
China	34.7	34.3	45.7	-1.3	5.8
Singapore	30.9	30.6	35.4	0.9	1.9
Fiji	28.1	28.1	33.5	-0.5	2.9
Japan	25.5	25.8	30.6	1.5	22.2
Italy	15.0	14.6	28.9	-1.1	2.3
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:

1 The October 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% higher than September 2015.
2 The October 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than September 2015.

The figure of 2.4% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the year 2011, there were over 14 million multiple movements accounting for 46% of all movements (see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 10,130 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during September 2015, a decrease of 3.0% compared with September 2014 (10,450 movements). People born in China and India accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (15.9% each), followed by people born in New Zealand (9.8%).

There were 6,100 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during September 2015, an increase of 2.7% compared with September 2014 (5,940 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the calendar year 2011, out of the 84,240 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 15,890 spent 12 months or more overseas.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimates changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.