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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Sep 2012 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/11/2012   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during September 2012 (513,500 movements) increased 0.5% when compared with August 2012 (510,900 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 3.2% higher than in September 2011.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during September 2012. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for September 2011 and September 2012 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for China (19.8%) followed by Singapore (19.4%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for New Zealand (5.6%) followed by Korea (4.8%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - September 2012

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Aug 12 to Sep 12
Sep 11 to Sep 12
Source countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
95.6
94.8
108.2
-1.0
-5.6
China
58.1
60.5
43.5
2.2
19.8
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
48.7
49.7
38.5
0.3
-3.7
United States of America
38.2
39.4
33.7
-0.3
1.8
Japan
29.6
29.4
29.2
0.1
5.7
Singapore
31.9
30.8
28.4
2.5
19.4
Malaysia
22.4
22.7
20.6
0.7
10.4
Korea(c)
16.0
16.5
13.9
0.9
-4.8
Germany
12.6
12.9
12.8
0.4
-0.4
Hong Kong
15.0
15.1
12.6
1.5
10.4

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
(c) Includes North Korea and South Korea.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The October 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.4% higher than September 2012.
      2 The October 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.4% lower than September 2012.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.4% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during September 2012 (691,300 movements) increased 0.1% when compared with August 2012 (690,600 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 5.5% higher than in September 2011.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during September 2012. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for Singapore (14.6%), followed by the United States of America (12.8%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for the UK, CIs & IOM (6.1%), followed by New Zealand (1.5%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - September 2012

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Aug 12 to Sep 12
Sep 11 to Sep 12
Source countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

United States of America
74.9
77.5
107.4
1.7
12.8
New Zealand
93.8
91.3
94.5
0.8
-1.5
Indonesia
74.4
75.2
87.6
-0.4
-0.5
Thailand
51.7
50.9
57.0
-1.4
7.6
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
37.9
39.2
56.2
-1.4
-6.1
China
30.7
30.8
44.5
-1.4
-0.4
Fiji
29.0
28.4
35.9
0.6
1.4
Singapore
27.5
29.5
34.5
2.7
14.6
Italy
13.0
13.6
28.2
-
5.3
Malaysia
22.2
22.2
24.5
-1.2
5.6

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The October 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than September 2012.
      2 The October 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than September 2012.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia 2008-09 (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 12,480 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during September 2012, a decrease of 1.8% compared with September 2011 (12,720 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (18.9%), followed by people born in China (11.8%), India (11.4%) and UK, CIs and IOM (9.3%).

There were 6,250 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during September 2012, which increased 4.6% when compared with September 2011 (5,980 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, out of the 72,100 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 14,370 spent 12 months or more overseas.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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