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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Sep 2009 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/11/2009   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during September 2009 (457,800 movements) increased 0.5% when compared with August 2009 (455,300 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 0.5% higher than in September 2008.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during September 2009. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for September 2009 and September 2008 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Malaysia (22.6%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by Japan (24.0%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - September 2009

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Aug 09 to Sep 09
Sep 08 to Sep 09
Source countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
91.1
91.0
107.7
0.6
-1.0
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
56.0
56.6
41.7
-0.2
3.0
Japan
27.9
36.0
36.0
3.5
-24.0
United States of America
41.5
42.5
33.6
2.1
12.1
China
26.5
29.7
22.9
0.2
-0.5
Singapore
23.8
25.2
20.7
0.4
3.7
Indonesia
9.5
10.3
16.4
2.4
18.6
Malaysia
17.4
17.3
16.0
-2.1
22.6
Germany
13.4
13.2
12.9
0.2
4.9
Korea
14.7
14.4
11.3
-1.1
-15.9

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The October seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than September.
      2 The October seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than September.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

The trend estimates series has been suspended for April 2009 and onwards. For further information please see the SUSPENSION OF SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES TREND ESTIMATES section on the NOTES page of this issue.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during September 2009.

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - September 2009

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Aug 09 to Sep 09
Sep 08 to Sep 09
Destination countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
np
86.1
90.6
np
np
United States of America
np
50.2
66.5
np
np
Indonesia
np
47.6
56.8
np
np
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
np
36.7
50.3
np
np
Thailand
np
32.5
37.3
np
np
China
np
22.5
31.7
np
np
Fiji
np
22.9
27.8
np
np
Singapore
np
19.7
21.1
np
np
Malaysia
np
17.1
19.0
np
np
Italy
np
8.8
18.6
np
np

np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example in the financial year 2006-07 there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 12,550 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during September 2009, a decrease of 9.9% compared with September 2008 (13,920 movements). People born in China accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (13.1%), followed by people born in the UK, CIs & IOM (12.4%), India (10.9%), and New Zealand (9.4%).

There were 5,940 Australian residents who departed permanently from Australia during September 2009, an increase of 3.2% compared with September 2008 (5,750 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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