3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Oct 2016 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/12/2016   
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MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during October 2016 (709,300 movements) increased 0.6% when compared with September 2016 (705,100 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 11.1% higher than in October 2015.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Short-Term Visitor Arrivals, Australia

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during October 2016. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for October 2015 and October 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Malaysia (26.9%), followed by South Korea (23.5%), and United States of America and India (both 19.2%).


Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - October 2016

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Sep '16 to Oct '16
Oct '15 to Oct '16
Country of Residence(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
114.7
113.0
131.2
0.1
4.3
China
103.6
107.9
85.6
0.9
8.7
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
59.7
60.0
60.0
0.2
3.1
United States of America
63.1
62.7
57.1
0.9
19.2
Singapore
37.0
36.5
35.0
-0.9
7.8
Japan
34.5
34.8
34.8
0.2
16.5
Malaysia
36.1
36.3
31.3
2.0
26.9
Korea, South
24.8
24.7
22.6
1.3
23.5
Germany
17.4
18.3
22.3
2.2
8.4
India
22.9
22.9
20.4
1.1
19.2

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The November 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% higher than October 2016.
      2 The November 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than October 2016.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STVA Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during October 2016 (837,600 movements) increased 0.4% when compared with September 2016 (834,100 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 4.6% higher than in October 2015.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Short-Term Resident Departures, Australia

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in October 2016. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for October 2015 and October 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for India (14.9%), followed by Japan (10.1%), and Indonesia (8.3%).The highest percentage decrease was recorded for UK, CIs & IOM (-10.0%).


Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - October 2016

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Sep '16 to Oct '16
Oct '15 to Oct '16
Country of Stay(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

Indonesia
102.0
104.8
112.0
-1.5
8.3
New Zealand
114.2
113.9
98.2
1.4
6.6
United States of America
90.4
93.8
95.5
0.8
5.4
China
38.1
39.7
47.8
1.7
6.9
Thailand
42.6
42.5
45.7
-1.5
-7.8
Fiji
29.7
30.0
35.0
2.0
0.1
Singapore
32.4
31.8
32.1
0.4
5.2
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
47.2
47.0
29.5
-0.2
-10.0
India
27.8
28.9
29.3
1.6
14.9
Japan
30.9
32.0
28.1
1.1
10.1

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The November 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% higher than October 2016.
      2 The November 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than October 2016.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STRD Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.4% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimates changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.