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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Oct 2009 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 07/12/2009   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during October 2009 (472,000 movements) increased 1.3% when compared with September 2009 (466,000 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 4.3% higher than in October 2008.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during October 2009. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for October 2009 and October 2008 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Malaysia (26.9%) while the highest percentage decreases were recorded by Japan (14.9%) and Korea (14.6%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - October 2009

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Sep 09 to Oct 09
Oct 08 to Oct 09
Source countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
93.4
94.2
111.6
1.3
0.9
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
56.3
57.4
59.2
-0.2
4.1
United States of America
43.1
43.2
39.7
2.0
17.6
Japan
29.8
29.4
30.5
4.3
-14.9
China
30.4
32.1
27.3
5.3
12.1
Singapore
23.9
23.9
22.0
0.6
5.2
Germany
13.4
13.5
16.1
-0.3
4.0
Malaysia
18.4
20.1
14.5
0.5
26.9
Korea
13.9
13.2
13.0
-2.1
-14.6
Hong Kong
13.4
13.6
12.8
2.1
12.7

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The November seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than October.
      2 The November seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than October.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

The trend estimates series has been suspended for April 2009 and onwards. For further information please see the SUSPENSION OF SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES TREND ESTIMATES section on the NOTES page of this issue.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during October 2009.

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - October 2009

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Sep 09 to Oct 09
Oct 08 to Oct 09
Destination countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
np
91.9
83.7
np
np
Indonesia
np
52.3
57.3
np
np
United States of America
np
58.5
55.9
np
np
Thailand
np
35.1
42.8
np
np
China
np
23.9
28.5
np
np
Fiji
np
23.5
27.6
np
np
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
np
35.4
25.6
np
np
Malaysia
np
22.3
22.5
np
np
Singapore
np
20.6
20.9
np
np
Hong Kong
np
18.9
20.5
np
np

np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example in the financial year 2006-07 there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 11,600 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during October 2009, a decrease of 15.3% compared with October 2008 (13,700 movements). People born in China and the UK, CIs & IOM accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (each 13.3%), followed by people born in India (11.1%) and New Zealand (9.7%).

There were 6,160 Australian residents who departed permanently from Australia during October 2009, an increase of 2.6% compared with October 2008 (6,000 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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