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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Nov 2008 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/01/2009   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during November 2008 (446,400 movements) declined by 0.7% compared with October 2008 (449,400 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 5.1% lower than in November 2007.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during November 2008. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for November 2008 and November 2007 were compared the highest percentage increase was recorded by Malaysia (4.9%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by Korea (22.8%) followed closely by Japan (22.7%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia(a) - November 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Oct 08 to Nov 08
Nov 07 to Nov 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
92.3
92.0
89.8
0.4
-1.7
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
53.3
51.6
60.7
-0.9
-5.5
Japan
34.9
34.2
38.7
-2.4
-22.7
United States of America
36.9
38.2
38.4
-0.2
-6.4
China
25.4
26.1
29.1
-0.3
-18.9
Singapore
22.2
21.3
27.5
-1.3
0.9
Malaysia
14.4
16.3
18.8
2.0
4.9
Korea
15.3
13.3
14.6
-6.8
-22.8
Germany
12.6
12.5
13.9
-0.1
-0.7
Canada
10.3
10.6
11.7
-1.2
3.9

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The December seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than November.
      2 The December seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than November.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms in November 2008, short-term resident departures (483,100 movements) recorded a decrease of 0.2% compared with October 2008 (484,300 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 2.3% higher than in November 2007.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during November 2008. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for November 2008 and November 2007 were compared the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (14.4%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by UK,CIs & IOM (8.0%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia(a) - November 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Oct 08 to Nov08
Nov 07 to Nov 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
76.1
78.2
72.4
-
-0.6
United States of America
41.3
39.5
35.8
-1.0
-1.3
Thailand
31.7
31.8
30.2
-1.4
-0.1
Indonesia
30.9
26.2
24.0
-1.2
14.4
China
22.7
22.7
21.5
0.8
-6.6
India
11.8
11.1
20.3
0.5
12.3
Hong Kong
17.9
17.0
19.8
0.1
1.5
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
33.7
32.8
19.7
-0.8
-8.0
Fiji
19.7
19.8
18.3
-0.1
5.8
Singapore
17.7
17.1
16.6
-0.9
-7.0

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The December seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than November.
      2 The December seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than November.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 14,000 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during November 2008, an increase of 11.8% compared with November 2007 (12,510 movements). People born in UK, CIs & IOM accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (16%), followed by people born in New Zealand (15%), India (11%) and China (9%).

There were 5,760 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during November 2008, an increase of 5.4% compared with November 2007 (5,460 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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