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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, May 2008  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 07/07/2008   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during May 2008 (475,600 movements) increased by 0.3% compared with April 2008 (474,200 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 0.8% higher than in May 2007.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during May 2008. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for May 2008 and May 2007 were compared the highest percentage increase was recorded by China (20.9%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by Japan (18.2%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia(a) - May 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Apr 08 to May 08
May 07 to May 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
95.2
99.3
97.8
0.6
-1.1
United States of America
38.1
38.4
30.2
-0.1
-0.6
United Kingdom
59.3
59.2
29.8
1.0
3.0
Japan
39.1
39.2
29.4
-1.4
-18.2
Singapore
22.6
22.9
23.7
-0.5
2.1
China
34.6
32.4
22.9
1.3
20.9
Malaysia
14.8
15.8
17.3
0.2
11.2
Korea
19.1
19.6
16.8
0.5
-13.4
India
9.3
9.1
13.3
-1.2
20.5
Hong Kong
12.4
13.0
9.9
0.9
-0.4

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The June seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than May.
      2 The June seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than May.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 25 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms in May 2008, short-term resident departures (489,000 movements) increased by 0.8% compared with April 2008 (485,400 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 9.2% higher than in May 2007.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during May 2008. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for May 2008 and May 2007 were compared the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (39.3%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by New Zealand (1.2%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia(a) - May 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Apr 08 to May 08
May 07 to May 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
74.8
75.4
55.7
-0.5
-1.2
United Kingdom
35.8
35.0
49.6
-
2.9
United States of America
40.8
41.9
44.4
-0.2
4.9
Thailand
38.3
39.5
32.2
3.1
20.8
Indonesia
31.2
31.6
28.6
-
39.3
China
24.5
24.6
23.1
0.3
1.8
Singapore
18.3
18.8
17.9
0.1
-0.7
Hong Kong
18.6
19.7
17.6
2.1
10.2
Italy
10.2
10.6
17.5
0.2
9.8
Fiji
19.8
19.9
16.9
0.5
25.5

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The June seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% higher than May.
      2 The June seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than May.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 3.0% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 25 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 13,180 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during May 2008, an increase of 15.2% compared with May 2007 (11,440 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (18%), followed by people born in India (14%), the United Kingdom (12%) and China (7%).

There were 5,730 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during May 2008, an increase of 3.9% compared with May 2007 (5,520 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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