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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Mar 2011 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 10/05/2011   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during March 2011 (487,900 movements) decreased 0.8% when compared with February 2011 (491,800 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.5% higher than in March 2010.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during March 2011. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for March 2010 and March 2011 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by China (23.1%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded by Japan (14.5%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - March 2011

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Feb 11 to Mar 11
Mar 10 to Mar 11
Source countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
101.8
103.5
93.2
0.6
8.3
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
49.5
46.0
60.1
-2.8
-7.6
United States of America
39.4
38.9
41.7
-0.4
0.4
China
43.2
40.6
41.2
0.3
23.1
Japan
27.7
28.0
36.0
-1.3
-14.5
Singapore
26.0
24.6
24.6
-1.2
5.8
Malaysia
18.8
19.4
20.4
-3.2
7.2
Korea(c)
16.4
15.7
15.7
-3.7
-8.6
Germany
13.2
12.7
14.6
-0.7
-1.4
India
12.9
13.0
13.9
0.4
16.2

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
(c) Includes North Korea and South Korea.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The April 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than March 2011.
      2 The April 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than March 2011.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during March 2011 (593,000 movements) decreased 1.6% when compared with February 2011 (602,700 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 4.0% higher than in March 2010.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during March 2011. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for March 2010 and March 2011 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Singapore (16.9%). The next highest percentage increase was for Indonesia (14.5%) followed by the United States of America (13.5%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded by the UK, CIs & IOM (4.3%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - March 2011

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Feb 11 to Mar 11
Mar 10 to Mar 11
Destination countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
86.4
81.9
89.6
-1.0
-1.2
Indonesia
67.4
64.2
56.5
0.1
14.5
United States of America
60.6
60.6
54.7
0.6
13.5
Thailand
41.1
39.6
35.8
1.0
6.9
China
27.3
27.2
30.7
-0.5
1.0
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
34.8
34.9
25.8
-1.0
-4.3
Singapore
24.5
25.1
23.7
2.0
16.9
Hong Kong
18.1
18.8
23.1
-0.1
6.2
Fiji
24.5
24.0
21.7
-1.8
-
Malaysia
20.7
20.9
19.9
-0.2
2.4

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The April 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% higher than March 2011.
      2 The April 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than March 2011.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 3.0% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia 2008-09 (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 11,600 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during March 2011, a decrease of 10.0% compared with March 2010 (12,890 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (24.8%), followed by people born in China (12.0%), India (7.3%) and the UK, CIs & IOM (6.5%).

There were 7,340 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during March 2011, an increase of 2.2% compared with March 2010 (7,180 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, out of the 72,100 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 14,370 spent 12 months or more overseas.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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