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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Mar 2009 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/05/2009   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during March 2009 (472,100 movements) rose 0.9% when compared with February 2009 (467,800 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 0.7% higher than in March 2008.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during March 2009. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for March 2009 and March 2008 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Malaysia (22.2%) while the highest percentage decreases were recorded by Japan (19.9%) and Korea (19.7%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia(a) - March 2009

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Feb 09 to Mar 09
Mar 08 to Mar 09
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
96.6
97.0
81.5
0.4
3.4
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
54.8
53.7
71.6
0.4
-4.9
Japan
32.2
33.4
42.0
0.4
-19.9
United States of America
36.8
36.6
40.9
-0.2
-3.2
China
37.5
39.4
34.2
5.3
16.3
Singapore
23.9
24.3
23.2
1.7
6.7
Malaysia
17.4
18.0
19.9
3.7
22.2
Korea
15.2
16.5
15.8
2.2
-19.7
Germany
12.8
12.2
14.8
-0.8
-1.7
Hong Kong
14.1
14.0
13.1
2.7
16.1

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The April seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than March.
      2 The April seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than March.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms in March 2009, short-term resident departures (469,700 movements) decreased 0.5% compared with February 2009 (471,900 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 2.4% lower than in March 2008.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during March 2009. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for March 2009 and March 2008 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (26.9%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by Fiji (16.4%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia(a) - March 2009

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Feb 09 to Mar 09
Mar 08 to Mar 09
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
80.4
77.9
85.2
0.4
6.7
United States of America
36.0
37.0
33.8
-1.3
-12.2
Indonesia
38.7
38.3
32.9
2.5
26.9
Thailand
30.4
29.9
26.1
-0.4
-14.6
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
33.9
34.0
25.8
0.3
-4.0
China
23.0
22.8
24.2
-0.1
-3.5
Hong Kong
15.8
14.9
16.6
-2.4
-12.3
Malaysia
16.2
16.3
15.5
-0.6
4.7
Singapore
17.7
15.6
15.3
-1.2
-3.2
Fiji
16.5
14.7
13.5
-4.4
-16.4

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The April seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than March.
      2 The April seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than March.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 13,660 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during March 2009, a decrease of 6.8% compared with March 2008 (14,660 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (14.5%), followed by people born in China (12.4%), UK, CIs & IOM (12.2%) and India (11.1%).

There were 6,600 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during March 2009, a decrease of 3.6% compared with March 2008 (6,850 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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