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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jul 2008  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/09/2008   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during July 2008 (475,700 movements) rose 0.2% compared with June 2008 (474,500 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.4% higher than in July 2007.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during July 2008. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for July 2008 and July 2007 were compared the highest percentage increase was recorded by Germany (17.8%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by Japan (19.5%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia(a) - July 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jun 08 to Jul 08
Jul 07 to Jul 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
93.4
93.1
106.7
-
-2.4
United States of America
38.1
42.4
50.4
-
-0.3
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
56.5
54.3
40.3
-1.0
-0.5
Japan
38.3
39.6
38.7
-0.2
-19.5
China
31.0
30.4
34.8
-2.5
5.8
Korea
20.3
21.2
23.3
1.7
-6.0
Singapore
22.8
23.7
20.5
0.4
3.5
Germany
14.7
15.3
16.6
3.2
17.8
Italy
4.6
10.1
13.3
0.9
3.0
Hong Kong
12.2
11.3
13.0
-0.8
-1.6

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



World Youth Day

World Youth Day (WYD) 2008 was held in Sydney, Australia from 15 to 20 July 2008. The official website describes WYD as "a week-long series of events attended by the Pope and hundreds of thousands of young people from all over the globe. It has become the largest single mobilisation of young people in the world"(footnote 1) .

In original terms, there were 531,600 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in July 2008. This was not the highest number of monthly movements ever recorded (December 2006, 643,400 movements) but it was the highest number recorded in a July month.

In original terms, some of the top ten source countries recorded decreases in movements when July 2007 and July 2008 were compared (Japan, UK, CIs & IOM and Hong Kong). The other top ten countries, including Italy and Germany, recorded increases. Of those countries outside the top ten many recorded significant increases with short-term visitor arrivals more than doubling for Spain (5,500 movements) and Brazil (3,600 movements) while large increases were recorded for the Philippines (5,600 movements) and Viet Nam (3,700 movements). For further information on specific countries see table 5 or the timeseries spreadsheets released with this product via the Downloads tab on the ABS website.

The median age of short-term visitor arrivals in July 2008 (31 years) was lower than in July 2007 (34 years) and the previous financial year, 2007-08 (39 years). The effect of WYD on the age of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia is clearly demonstrated in the graph below.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Age: Original series
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia—Age: Original series



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The August seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than July.
      2 The August seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than July.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 25 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms in July 2008, short-term resident departures (484,500 movements) recorded an increase of 0.2% compared with June 2008 (483,700 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 5.8% higher than in July 2007.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during July 2008. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for July 2008 and July 2007 were compared the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (34.3%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by China (11.3%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia(a) - July 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jun 08 to Jul 08
Jul 07 to Jul 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
75.9
77.3
71.4
0.3
-1.3
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
34.9
34.6
41.9
-0.2
-3.0
United States of America
40.6
41.4
37.0
0.4
2.2
Indonesia
29.9
29.8
35.4
-0.3
34.3
Thailand
36.2
32.8
34.3
-0.9
12.4
Fiji
19.2
18.9
20.5
-0.6
14.5
Singapore
17.7
17.3
18.9
-0.5
-7.6
Malaysia
16.4
16.3
17.6
1.7
13.1
China
21.5
21.8
17.0
-2.6
-11.3
Hong Kong
18.8
17.5
13.8
0.5
10.1

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The August seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than July.
      2 The August seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than July.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 25 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 11,460 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during July 2008, an increase of 14.6% compared with July 2007 (10,000 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (18%), followed by people born in the UK, CIs and IOM (12%), India (11%) and China (10%).

There were 6,430 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during July 2008, an increase of 1.7% compared with July 2007 (6,320 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.

1 http://www.wyd2008.org/index.php/en/about_wyd08. Accessed 26 August 2008. <back

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