MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during February 2016 (652,300 movements) increased 0.1% when compared with January 2016 (651,600 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 8.8% higher than in February 2015.

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during February 2016. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for February 2015 and February 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for South Korea (27.0%), followed by Japan (24.4%), and China (23.8%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - February 2016
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Jan '16 to Feb '16	Feb '15 to Feb '16
Country of Residence(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
China	96.5	89.1	173.6	-0.7	23.8
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	59.0	58.3	81.1	0.5	4.8
New Zealand	109.2	102.6	79.0	-0.4	2.3
United States of America	56.0	56.0	71.3	0.8	15.0
Japan	32.9	33.8	42.2	2.3	24.4
Malaysia	28.4	28.9	33.2	-0.9	6.6
Singapore	33.8	32.9	31.9	-1.0	9.1
Hong Kong	19.6	19.3	29.5	-0.0	13.8
Korea, South	23.3	23.4	28.4	2.4	27.0
Germany	16.4	16.4	22.3	0.3	3.5
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:

1 The March 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% higher than February 2016.
2 The March 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than February 2016.

The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during February 2016 (810,600 movements) increased 0.1% when compared with January 2016 (809,900 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 4.6% higher than in February 2015.

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in February 2016. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for February 2015 and February 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Japan (21.4%), followed by the United Kingdom (13.9%), and India (10.4%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Thailand (-10.3%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - February 2016
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Jan '16 to Feb '16	Feb '15 to Feb '16
Country of Stay(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	109.8	109.2	113.3	0.2	5.0
Indonesia	102.6	103.3	76.8	1.7	10.2
United States of America	84.4	79.5	53.0	-0.3	2.5
Thailand	41.5	41.3	33.1	-2.3	-10.3
Japan	28.1	27.6	29.7	-0.5	21.4
India	26.1	24.4	24.4	1.1	10.4
Singapore	30.2	29.8	24.3	-0.8	0.1
China	35.8	34.5	24.3	-0.3	2.3
Malaysia	22.4	23.4	20.9	2.1	1.8
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	52.2	53.4	19.1	0.2	13.9
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:

1 The March 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% higher than February 2016.
2 The March 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than February 2016.

The figure of 2.4% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the year 2011, there were over 14 million multiple movements accounting for 46% of all movements (see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 10,830 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during February 2016, a decrease of 8.5% compared with February 2015 (11,830 movements). People born in India accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (18.7%), followed by people born in China (15.9%), and people born in New Zealand (11.7%).

There were 7,390 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during February 2016, an increase of 13.1% compared with February 2015 (6,530 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the calendar year 2011, out of the 84,240 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 15,890 spent 12 months or more overseas.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimates changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.