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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Dec 2011 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 07/02/2012   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during December 2011 (505,000 movements) increased 0.3% when compared with November 2011 (503,600 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.4% higher than in December 2010.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during December 2011. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for December 2010 and December 2011 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for China (15.5%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Japan (6.9%) followed by the United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man (6.4%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - December 2011

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Nov 11 to Dec 11
Dec 10 to Dec 11
Source countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
102.4
101.2
112.7
0.4
2.9
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
49.9
49.9
93.0
-0.7
-6.4
United States of America
39.7
40.8
52.6
2.5
0.4
China
48.9
47.8
47.8
-0.3
15.5
Singapore
27.0
27.0
41.6
-0.8
-0.1
Japan
27.8
27.6
30.9
-0.7
-6.9
Malaysia
20.1
19.8
26.6
-1.7
-3.5
Korea(c)
17.8
18.4
20.7
1.8
-1.5
Hong Kong
14.1
14.1
18.7
0.8
-0.6
Germany
12.9
13.0
18.4
0.6
-4.3

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
(c) Includes North Korea and South Korea.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The January 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than December 2011.
      2 The January 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than December 2011.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during December 2011 (651,200 movements) decreased 0.2% when compared with November 2011 (652,300 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 7.2% higher than in December 2010.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during December 2011. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for December 2010 and December 2011 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Thailand (17.1%), followed by China (15.7%). The only percentage decrease was recorded for Malaysia (0.1%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - December 2011

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Nov 11 to Dec 11
Dec 10 to Dec 11
Destination countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
96.7
95.2
156.6
0.1
10.0
United States of America
64.4
65.9
81.0
-0.9
7.1
Indonesia
75.3
73.8
81.0
0.4
12.3
Thailand
46.4
47.0
56.9
-0.8
17.1
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
38.6
39.9
46.1
-0.7
5.2
China
32.2
32.1
38.6
1.5
15.7
India
16.6
16.7
34.2
-0.3
12.4
Fiji
28.6
28.0
31.3
0.4
9.8
Vietnam
17.8
17.5
30.9
0.2
8.1
Malaysia
20.9
20.5
28.4
-0.5
-0.1

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The January 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% higher than December 2011.
      2 The January 2012 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than December 2011.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 3.0% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia 2008-09 (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 13,900 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during December 2011, an increase of 38.7% compared with December 2010 (10,020 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (19.4%), followed by people born in UK, CIs & IOM (9.9%), China (8.7%) and India (8.4%).

There were 8,170 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during December 2011, which increased 2% when compared with December 2010 (8,010 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, out of the 72,100 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 14,370 spent 12 months or more overseas.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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