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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Dec 2009 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/02/2010   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during December 2009 (486,500 movements) increased 1.0% when compared with November 2009 (481,500 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 6.4% higher than in December 2008.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during December 2009. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for December 2009 and December 2008 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by the United States of America (21.6%), followed by Malaysia (12.9%). The only percentage decrease was recorded by Japan (5.4%).

1 Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - December 2009

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Nov 09 to Dec 09
Dec 08 to Dec 09
Source countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

UK, CIs & IOM(b)
55.2
54.3
99.8
-0.3
2.2
New Zealand
95.6
94.5
99.5
0.7
1.1
United States of America
44.8
44.4
52.9
1.4
21.6
Singapore
24.3
23.8
37.9
0.2
5.8
Japan
30.9
30.3
34.9
2.0
-5.4
China
32.0
30.7
31.1
2.0
3.2
Malaysia
17.8
17.8
24.6
-0.1
12.9
Germany
14.3
15.0
20.7
1.7
10.3
Korea
15.5
17.4
18.9
2.1
5.0
Hong Kong
13.6
13.1
17.0
1.0
5.9

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The January 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than December 2009.
      2 The January 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than December 2009.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

The trend estimates series has been suspended for April 2009 and onwards. For further information please see the SUSPENSION OF SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES TREND ESTIMATES section on the NOTES page of this issue.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during December 2009.

2 Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - December 2009

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Nov 09 to Dec 09
Dec 08 to Dec 09
Destination countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
np
88.3
141.2
np
np
Indonesia
np
55.0
58.5
np
np
United States of America
np
44.5
58.0
np
np
Thailand
np
38.5
45.6
np
np
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
np
36.6
43.7
np
np
China
np
25.7
31.3
np
np
India
np
14.9
29.4
np
np
Malaysia
np
18.6
26.8
np
np
Singapore
np
20.1
25.3
np
np
Hong Kong
np
18.0
25.1
np
np

np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example in the financial year 2006-07 there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 11,940 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during December 2009, a decrease of 9.5% compared with December 2008 (13,200 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (12.2%), followed by people born in India (10.0%), the UK, CIs & IOM (9.9%) and China (9.8%).

There were 7,780 Australian residents who departed permanently from Australia during December 2009, an increase of 4.3% compared with December 2008 (7,460 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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