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The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during December 2009. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for December 2009 and December 2008 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by the United States of America (21.6%), followed by Malaysia (12.9%). The only percentage decrease was recorded by Japan (5.4%).
'What if'....? Future scenarios
The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
2 The January 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than December 2009.
The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.
SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES
The trend estimates series has been suspended for April 2009 and onwards. For further information please see the SUSPENSION OF SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES TREND ESTIMATES section on the NOTES page of this issue.
The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during December 2009.
PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS
Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example in the financial year 2006-07 there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).
There were 11,940 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during December 2009, a decrease of 9.5% compared with December 2008 (13,200 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (12.2%), followed by people born in India (10.0%), the UK, CIs & IOM (9.9%) and China (9.8%).
There were 7,780 Australian residents who departed permanently from Australia during December 2009, an increase of 4.3% compared with December 2008 (7,460 movements).
The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.
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