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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Aug 2010 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/10/2010   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during August 2010 (487,900 movements) increased 0.6% when compared with July 2010 (485,200 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 5.6% higher than in August 2009.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during August 2010. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for August 2010 and August 2009 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by China (48.0%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded by the United States of America (7.7%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - August 2010

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jul 10 to Aug 10
Aug 09 to Aug 10
Source countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
96.0
97.7
99.3
0.7
5.2
Japan
36.0
37.9
47.5
2.4
32.3
United States of America
38.3
40.0
36.8
-
-7.7
China
41.7
44.1
36.8
3.2
48.0
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
52.2
52.8
33.6
-0.1
-7.3
Singapore
25.6
26.2
21.4
1.4
9.0
Malaysia
18.7
18.8
18.2
1.5
5.6
Korea(c)
16.4
16.1
16.2
-2.7
12.4
Hong Kong
14.7
16.1
14.7
4.0
16.1
Germany
13.2
13.2
11.9
0.1
-1.9

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
(c) Includes North Korea and South Korea.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The September 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than August 2010.
      2 The September 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than August 2010.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during August 2010 (602,900 movements) increased 0.7% when compared with July 2010 (598,500 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 13.4% higher than in August 2009.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during August 2010. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for August 2009 and August 2010 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (30.1%), followed by China (29.6%) and the United States of America (25.1%). None of the top ten destination countries recorded a percentage decrease over the year ended August 2010.

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - August 2010

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jul 10 to Aug 10
Aug 09 to Aug 10
Destination countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
91.1
87.0
83.2
0.7
4.1
Indonesia
61.7
61.5
64.6
0.4
30.1
United States of America
60.1
59.5
59.6
1.4
25.1
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
40.0
38.2
51.0
1.1
9.7
Thailand
34.2
33.9
32.4
-1.2
4.5
Fiji
27.1
26.4
27.8
1.1
18.0
China
30.1
31.0
27.1
2.0
29.6
Singapore
22.1
22.0
19.6
0.5
17.5
Malaysia
20.6
21.9
18.1
-0.1
6.0
Hong Kong
18.0
19.3
15.6
2.5
2.0

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The September 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% higher than August 2010.
      2 The September 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than August 2010.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 3.0% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example in the financial year 2006-07 there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia 2008-09 (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 11,570 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during August 2010, a decrease of 12.8% compared with August 2009 (13,260 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (13.8%), followed by people born in China (12.8%), the UK, CIs & IOM (9.5%) and India (9.4%).

There were 7,990 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during August 2010, an increase of 3.7% compared with August 2009 (7,710 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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