3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Aug 2008  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/10/2008   
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MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during August 2008 (465,600 movements) fell by 0.5% compared with July 2008 (467,800 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 0.8% lower than in August 2007.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during August 2008. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for August 2008 and August 2007 were compared the highest percentage increase was recorded by Malaysia (12.2%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by Japan (17.8%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia(a) - August 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jul 08 to Aug 08
Aug 07 to Aug 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
90.5
88.0
93.6
-1.2
-4.9
Japan
39.0
40.1
48.0
-
-17.8
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
54.6
53.9
35.9
-1.6
-3.9
United States of America
38.5
38.8
34.2
0.2
0.8
China
27.4
24.6
22.0
-5.0
-8.9
Singapore
23.6
24.0
18.8
1.4
8.1
Korea
20.7
20.6
18.7
1.6
-1.4
Malaysia
14.4
14.5
13.9
0.1
12.2
Germany
12.7
12.8
11.6
-0.2
0.7
Hong Kong
11.7
11.1
10.4
-1.5
-6.8

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The September seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than August.
      2 The September seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than August.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms in August 2008, short-term resident departures (489,600 movements) recorded an increase of 0.3% compared with July 2008 (488,000 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 6.0% higher than in August 2007.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during August 2008. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for August 2008 and August 2007 were compared the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (36.6%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by Singapore (8.6%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia(a) - August 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jul 08 to Aug 08
Aug 07 to Aug 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
77.0
77.7
73.8
0.6
-
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
35.1
35.8
46.9
-0.1
-3.2
United States of America
42.0
43.3
43.1
1.0
4.5
Indonesia
30.8
31.8
36.5
0.5
36.6
Thailand
34.8
34.5
32.1
-2.0
8.7
Fiji
20.2
21.3
22.2
1.0
17.8
China
22.1
23.7
21.6
-0.4
-8.1
Singapore
17.7
18.0
16.7
-0.8
-8.6
Malaysia
16.6
16.5
14.1
1.0
12.2
Hong Kong
17.9
17.1
13.1
-1.6
3.0

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The September seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than August.
      2 The September seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than August.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 15,460 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during August 2008, an increase of 20.6% compared with August 2007 (12,820 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (15%), followed by people born in the UK, CIs and IOM (13%), India (12%) and China (11%).

There were 7,410 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during August 2008, an increase of 10.3% compared with August 2007 (6,720 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.