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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Apr 2008  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/06/2008   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during April 2008 (471,200 movements) increased by 0.3% compared with March 2008 (469,800 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 0.5% lower than in April 2007.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during April 2008. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for April 2008 and April 2007 were compared the highest percentage increase was recorded by China (24.9%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by Japan (17.5%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia(a) - April 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Mar 08 to Apr 08
Apr 07 to Apr 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
92.3
92.3
93.1
-0.4
-4.6
United Kingdom
58.4
59.4
49.9
1.1
-0.7
China
35.2
38.0
35.5
3.4
24.9
United States of America
37.9
37.8
33.4
-0.6
-1.5
Japan
39.8
39.1
31.2
-1.8
-17.5
Korea
18.6
19.0
17.3
-0.4
-15.9
Singapore
22.5
21.3
17.2
0.3
0.8
Malaysia
14.3
13.8
12.2
-0.4
6.5
Thailand
6.6
6.4
11.1
0.2
-2.0
Hong Kong
11.9
12.0
10.1
-0.5
-5.1

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:
      1 The May seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than April.
      2 The May seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than April.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 25 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms in April 2008, short-term resident departures (480,400 movements) increased by 0.2% compared with March 2008 (479,500 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 8.6% higher than in April 2007.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during April 2008. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for April 2008 and April 2007 were compared the highest percentage increase was recorded by Indonesia (39.2%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by Malaysia (0.2%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia(a) - April 2008

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Mar 08 to Apr 08
Apr 07 to Apr 08
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
74.9
71.9
70.5
-0.9
0.3
United States of America
40.3
39.9
41.2
-1.0
4.1
Thailand
36.0
37.8
36.7
2.8
14.5
United Kingdom
36.4
37.0
35.2
0.7
6.0
China
24.4
24.6
28.6
0.3
3.3
Indonesia(b)
31.2
30.0
27.3
-0.3
39.2
Fiji
19.7
19.0
18.0
0.1
29.5
Hong Kong
17.3
17.7
17.4
0.1
2.3
Singapore
18.0
17.8
17.3
-1.0
-0.1
Malaysia
14.9
15.3
13.9
-1.7
-0.2

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) Break in trend series - see Explanatory Notes, paragraph 23.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:
      1 The May seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% higher than April.
      2 The May seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than April.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 3.0% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 25 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 12,500 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during April 2008, an increase of 11.8% compared with April 2007 (11,180 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (21%), followed by people born in the United Kingdom (13%), India (12%) and China (8%).

There were 6,590 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during April 2008, a decrease of 4.0% compared with April 2007 (6,870 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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